Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
241 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...
HAD TO THROW OUT THE NAM IN FAVOR OF THE GFS SINCE ITS WIND FLOW
PATTERN AT 700 AND 500 MB HAD TROUGHING ALONG THE WESTNER GULF
COAST THAT DIDNT MATCH OBSERVATIONS.

RAINS ON RADAR SHOULD END BEFORE DARK SO ONLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SUMMERTIME EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. GFS MOS HAD SOME
UNUSUALLY HIGH POPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR MONDAY....UP TO
ABOUT 80 PERCENT NORTH. COULDNT GO FOR THOSE NUMBERS BUT KEPT A
50 PERCENT CHANCE AREA WIDE.

CURRENT CONTINUING PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INDICATES THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIMES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCES OF
RAIN DURING AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WILL BE SMALL WITH CONTINUING
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY OLIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  93  76  94 /  20  50  20  40
KBPT  76  93  77  94 /  20  50  20  30
KAEX  72  94  72  96 /  10  50  10  40
KLFT  76  93  75  93 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

GMZ450-455-470-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-
216-151015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON, LA OUT
20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
501 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...GM AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING ABOUT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY
PULSE UP TO SEVERE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MONDAY SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A
COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 TO 110 LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JS