Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
122 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...
3 MAJOR ISSUES IN THE FCST TONIGHT.

IN THE NORTHWEST...MET/MAV GUIDANCE...SFC OBS AND NAM MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. MODEL QPF OVER 1 INCH THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW. TEMPS ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S THIS AFTN SO WENT WITH WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4
INCHES. THIS A MIDDLE ROAD BETWEEN LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AND
HEAVY WET SNOW.

IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...2 INCHES
PLUS IN 6 HOURS IS FCST BY BOTH THE AVN AND THE NAM. FF GUIDANCE IS
NEAR 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE 5 COUNTY AREA ADJOINING
WFO FSD FCST AREA. THE ETA MODEL SNDGS FCST A DEEP PBL ZONE OF
EASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH IS YET TO DEVELOP. ALSO...LOCATION
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER NW KS WILL DICTATE AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
SUSPECT MODEL GENERATED HEAVY RAINFALL IS PART REAL PART CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. CUT THE MODEL GENERATED QPF IN HALF TO COMPENSATE FOR
SUSPECTED FEEDBACK. THIS WOULD THEN GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BUT NOT WIDESPREAD FLOODING. THIS ISSUE IS ONGOING AND A FFA MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND NCNTL
NEB.

IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FCST AREA...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...VERY RIPE AND UNSTABLE ATM...STRONG SHEAR COULD EASILY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AS THE MCS...WHERE EVER IT DEVELOPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST KS...TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA. FCST IS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

THURSDAY...DRY SLOT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE MCS THE WEDS NIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 50S AND 60S...40S FAR NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...BACK LASH DEVELOPS WITH WRAP AROUND SHRA/SHSN
NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY...CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SETTING THE
STAGE FOR MORE FREEZING TEMPS SATURDAY AM.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FCST IS DRY ATTM WITH MODERATING TEMPS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

CDC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
429 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-121030-
ARTHUR NE-BLAINE NE-BOYD NE-BROWN NE-CHASE NE-CUSTER NE-DEUEL NE-
EASTERN CHERRY NE-FRONTIER NE-GARDEN NE-GARFIELD NE-GRANT NE-
HAYES NE-HOLT NE-HOOKER NE-KEITH NE-KEYA PAHA NE-LINCOLN NE-LOGAN NE-
LOUP NE-MCPHERSON NE-PERKINS NE-ROCK NE-SHERIDAN NE-THOMAS NE-
WESTERN CHERRY NE-WHEELER NE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AINSWORTH...ARNOLD...ARTHUR...BASSETT...
BIG SPRINGS...BREWSTER...BROKEN BOW...BURWELL...CHAPPELL...CURTIS...
GORDON...GRANT...HAY SPRINGS...HAYES CENTER...IMPERIAL...MULLEN...
NORTH PLATTE...ONEILL...OGALLALA...OSHKOSH...RUSHVILLE...SPENCER...
SPRINGVIEW...STAPLETON...TAYLOR...THEDFORD...TRYON AND VALENTINE
430 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OUTLOOK AREA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY SPREAD NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 23.

IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...MOSTLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO PRESENT A HAZARD OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
853 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             10 S NORTH PLATTE       40.99N 100.77W
05/11/2005  2.75 INCH        LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

&&

RBURNS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
854 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     HAIL             HAYES CENTER            40.51N 101.02W
05/11/2005  1.75 INCH        HAYES              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MASEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
903 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     HAIL             2 E NORTH PLATTE        41.13N 100.73W
05/11/2005  1.50 INCH        LINCOLN            NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MEASURED PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AT THE NORTH PLATTE
            WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.

&&

MASEK

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