Flash Flood Warning 185, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST SUN OCT 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS IS CURRENTLY NEAR 18.1N 71.0W ...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS. ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE...THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE REMNANTS OF ALPHA EMERGE
FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELONGATED TUTT EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...WITH DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR ENTERING THE REGION
BEHIND T.S. ALPHA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
ENTERING INTO THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...DUE TO
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND T.S. ALPHA AND THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...THERE ARE STILL LINGERING CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
U.S.V.I...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND SOUTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
WHILE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING...THERE IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LINGERING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT BEHIND
T.S. ALPHA...AND DAY TIME HEATING LATER THIS MORNING...TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND EXTENDING INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE
FAVORED AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
EASTWARD TO THE U.S.V.I. THEREFORE...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THESE AREAS AND CANCELED IT ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...STRONG WIND GRADIENT BEHIND T.S. ALPHA
SHOULD EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MONA PASSAGE AND SLOWLY DROP OFF
FURTHER EAST. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR OFF
SHORE WATERS SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO...I.E. ZONE AMZ740...AND OFF
SHORE PORTIONS OF LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH SEAS AND WINDS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS T.S. ALPHA CONTINUES
ITS NORTHWEST MOTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  77  90  78 /  50  40  40  40
STT  85  77  86  78 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PRZ003-PRZ004-
     PRZ012-PRZ013.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM AST
THIS      AFTERNOON FOR AMZ710 AND 740.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR VIZ001-VIZ002.

&&

DIEHL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST SUN OCT 23 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-241030-
630 AM AST SUN OCT 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. STRONG WINDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS.

FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SOME LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-231030-
630 AM AST SAT OCT 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. STRONG WINDS AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL REGION...PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS.

FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SOME EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.