Flash Flood Warning 180, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1107 AM AST THU OCT 13 2005

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE PRODUCED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
THIS AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED OVER THE MOST OF
PUERTO RICO AND USVI...ALL THIS SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL CONCENTRATE ALONG THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...MAINLY FROM THE MUNICIPALITY OF
HATILLO EAST TO FAJARDO.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING THE ACTIVE
WEATHER OF LAST FEW DAYS HAVE MOVED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST
ALLOWING FOR A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THAT THE SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD AND THE LOW LEVELS NORTH WINDS WILL PUSH IT CLOSER TO
THE AREA AGAIN. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...WE CAN EXPECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY WITH THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA HAVING HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE LOCAL
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN REMAINS. BECAUSE OF THIS I HAVE CONTINUED WITH
A WET FORECAST TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN...WITH A TROUGH AXIS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA TO A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 26 NORTH
67 WEST...WITH THIS GENERAL PATTERN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH
NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...THE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE SEAS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR UNEXPERIENCED PEOPLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...BECOME OBVIOUS THAT THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OF
THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE SATURATED THE GROUND AREAWIDE AND SMALL
STREAM AND RIVERS WILL REACT QUICKLY TO SMALLER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THEN WILL NOT BE SAFE TO BE NEAR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TREND FOR WETTER WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WITH ALL
CONSEQUENCES IT HAVE. KEEP AN EYE ON CLIMATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU MMM MMM MMM MMM /  50  70  70  70
STT MMM MMM MMM MMM /  50  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST THU OCT 13 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-141030-
630 AM AST THU OCT 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL EAST NORTHEAST DIRECTION WHILE
SLOWLY WEAKENING. A SURFACE LOW WHICH HAS FORMED AS A RESULT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY WELL
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHICH CONTINUES
TO BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. SINCE THE GROUNDS REMAIN SATURATED...FLASH AND
RIVER FLOODING...AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

STREAM FLOW REMAINS MUCH HIGHER THAN USUAL...SO LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS UNTIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE. REMEMBER...IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE
RAINING IN THE LOCAL AREA FOR STREAM FLOW TO INCREASE TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS.

MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ALERT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS...WHICH WILL CREATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS...AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND HELP MAINTAIN A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A
NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED MOVE IN AND AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-141030-
630 AM AST THU OCT 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL EAST NORTHEAST DIRECTION WHILE
SLOWLY WEAKENING. A SURFACE LOW WHICH HAS FORMED AS A RESULT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY WELL
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHICH CONTINUES
TO BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. SINCE THE GROUNDS REMAIN SATURATED...URBAN AND GUT
FLOODING...AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ALERT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS...WHICH WILL CREATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS...AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND HELP MAINTAIN A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A
NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED MOVE IN AND AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.