Flash Flood Warning 169, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST MON OCT 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE ACTIVE MID TO UPPER LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS MID TO UPPER LOW IS INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
IS PULLING MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FLOWING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THE REST OF TODAY RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
INHIBIT THE SUN HEATING...THE GROUND REMAINS VERY SATURATED AND ANY
RAINFALL CAN BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.MARINE...THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL WATERS CAN SPAWN
WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE DENSE CLOUD COVER AND THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL RESULT IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOW CEILINGS AND POOR VISIBILITY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...GROUND REMAIN SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE ISLANDS AND
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  83  76  83  76 /  70  70  70  70
STT  83  77  84  77 /  70  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY FOR PRZ001-PRZ002-PRZ003-
     PRZ004-PRZ005-PRZ006-PRZ007-PRZ012-PRZ013.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY FOR VIZ001-VIZ002.

&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST MON OCT 10 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-111030-
630 AM AST MON OCT 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AND ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WELL TO
OUR NORTH THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO CREATE VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN
A FAVORABLE POSITION TO GENERATE STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS
FOR WIDESPREAD URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING. SINCE GROUNDS ARE STILL SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF INDUCING MUDSLIDES
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND
WILL MAINTAIN SEAS AROUND 6 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL
AS PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY IS
MAKING IT INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTS AND BEACHES OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...GENERATING RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. HOWEVER...ON
TUESDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-111030-
630 AM AST MON OCT 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A LARGE AND ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WELL TO
OUR NORTH THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO CREATE VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN
A FAVORABLE POSITION TO GENERATE STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS
FOR WIDESPREAD URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING. SINCE GROUNDS ARE STILL SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF INDUCING
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND
WILL MAINTAIN SEAS AROUND 6 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL
AS PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY IS
MAKING IT INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTS AND BEACHES OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...GENERATING RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. HOWEVER...ON
TUESDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.