Alert archive / U.S. Virgin Islands / Flash Flood Warnings in 2005

Flash Flood Warning 165, NWS JSJ

October 10, 2005

NWS JSJ issued this flash flood warning at Oct 10, 2005, 5:55 AM CDT. It was in force for 18 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 10, 2005, 5:55 AM CDT (10:55 UTC)
Expired: Oct 11, 2005, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 18 hr
Issued by: NWS JSJ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGCA52 TJSJ 101055
FFWSJU
VIC010-020-030-101300-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
655 AM AST MON OCT 10 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
  IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
     SAINT JOHN
     SAINT THOMAS
     SAINT CROIX

* UNTIL 900 AM AST

* AT 654 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
THAT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS RAIN 
HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY...IT REMAINS PERSISTENT...WITH ADDITIONAL 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD 
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 9 AM. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
ROADS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS
ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. RAPID RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING
WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 1843 6461 1768 6457 1757 6493 1843 6505

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS JSJ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Oct 10, 5:00 AM CDT, 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 10, 5:00 AM CDT, 55 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST MON OCT 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE ACTIVE MID TO UPPER LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING IS PRODUCING VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS MID TO UPPER LOW IS INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
IS PULLING MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FLOWING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THE REST OF TODAY RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
INHIBIT THE SUN HEATING...THE GROUND REMAINS VERY SATURATED AND ANY
RAINFALL CAN BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.MARINE...THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL WATERS CAN SPAWN
WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE DENSE CLOUD COVER AND THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL RESULT IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOW CEILINGS AND POOR VISIBILITY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...GROUND REMAIN SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE ISLANDS AND
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  83  76  83  76 /  70  70  70  70
STT  83  77  84  77 /  70  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY FOR PRZ001-PRZ002-PRZ003-
     PRZ004-PRZ005-PRZ006-PRZ007-PRZ012-PRZ013.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY FOR VIZ001-VIZ002.

&&

11

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 10, 5:30 AM CDT, 25 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST MON OCT 10 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-111030-
630 AM AST MON OCT 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AND ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WELL TO
OUR NORTH THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO CREATE VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN
A FAVORABLE POSITION TO GENERATE STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS
FOR WIDESPREAD URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING. SINCE GROUNDS ARE STILL SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF INDUCING MUDSLIDES
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND
WILL MAINTAIN SEAS AROUND 6 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL
AS PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY IS
MAKING IT INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTS AND BEACHES OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...GENERATING RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. HOWEVER...ON
TUESDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-111030-
630 AM AST MON OCT 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A LARGE AND ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WELL TO
OUR NORTH THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO CREATE VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN
A FAVORABLE POSITION TO GENERATE STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS
FOR WIDESPREAD URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING. SINCE GROUNDS ARE STILL SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF INDUCING
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND
WILL MAINTAIN SEAS AROUND 6 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL
AS PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY IS
MAKING IT INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTS AND BEACHES OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...GENERATING RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. HOWEVER...ON
TUESDAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

The office that day

Everything else NWS JSJ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 10, 3:55 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	JSJ		18 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in U.S. Virgin Islands, 2005 Every flash flood warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.