Flash Flood Warning 146, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
335 AM AST MON OCT 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE VERY HUMID AND
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z
SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PRECIP WATER OF 2.28 INCHES AND A LIFTED
INDEX OF -4.5. SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING A BAND OF MOISTURE
THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ACCORDING TO MODEL
GUIDANCE...THIS BAND OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTHEAST OR
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GOOD THETA-E AND
OMEGA VALUES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS...
HEAVY AT TIME AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. AS ALWAYS...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COMES THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH CAN LEAD TO
AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. ALL
THIS WEATHER CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS MORNING. AT LOW LEVEL...A
MAINLY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST...ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...
BEGINNING TODAY AND WILL PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWESTWARD. ON
THURSDAY...WE SHOULD RETURN TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON PATTERNS THAT ARE
MORE DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRESH ESE WIND FLOW IS DOMINATING THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND IS EVEN STRONGER WELL OFF SHORE DUE TO THE BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  89  78 /  70  40  40  70
STT  87  79  88  79 /  70  60  60  60

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR PRZ001-PRZ002-PRZ003-
     PRZ004-PRZ012-PRZ013.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR VIZ001-VIZ002.

&&

24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST MON OCT 3 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-041030-
630 AM AST MON OCT 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING AND THEN
WILL SPREAD TO THE WEST INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON.
GROUNDS AROUND THE EAST HALF ARE SATURATED FORM LAST NIGHT RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY. THE WEST INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS. AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THIS SAME AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR...LEADING TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE COMBINATION OF A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH AND A BAND
OF MOISTURE APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT
IN AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. AS ALWAYS...WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMES THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WHICH CAN LEAD TO AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-041030-
630 AM AST MON OCT 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE TERRITORY TODAY. HEAVY LOCALIZED RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND
DRY GUT FLOODING MAINLY IN LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE COMBINATION OF A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH AND A BAND
OF MOISTURE APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT
IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS ALWAYS...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COMES THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH CAN LEAD TO
AREAS OF URBAN AND GUT TYPE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

RM