Flash Flood Warning 128, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 262302
FFSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
704 PM AST MON SEP 26 2005

PRC059-262330-
GUAYANILLA-
704 PM AST MON SEP 26 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY
IN PUERTO RICO
     GUAYANILLA

AT 700 PM AST...A USGS RIVER GAUGE INDICATED THAT THE RIO GUAYANILLA 
HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND CONTINUES TO DROP TO NEAR NORMAL 
LEVELS. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 1803 6676 1800 6677 1797 6682 1806 6680

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
335 PM AST MON SEP 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE REMAINED ABUNDANT IN THE 12Z SOUNDING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.96 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX OF -4.4 . WINDS
WERE EASTERLY AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS...AND NORTHEAST AROUND 20
KNOTS AT UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIME AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...WHERE SOME URBAN
FLOODING WERE REPORTED. THE RIO PIEDRAS IN SAN JUAN WAS OUT OF ITS
BANK DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN...PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COUPLE OF
FLASH FLOOD WARNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PART OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT CROSSED THE LOCAL ISLANDS YESTERDAY IS NOW
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NEAR 70 WEST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE DAYS. IN
THE MEAN TIME...WE ARE WATCHING ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...THAT IS
ALONG 41 WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ACCORDING TO MODEL DATA...THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE RISK OF FLOODING. VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES AND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS REVEAL THAT AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
WINDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME. THE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY LINGER OVER THE LOCAL REGION UNTIL
SATURDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD THETA-E AND OMEGA
VALUES OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN IS
EXPECT THE BEST ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM A LARGE
NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES EAST OF BERMUDA WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...AND WILL
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WIND OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  78  88 /  40  40  40  40
STT  79  88  79  88 /  50  50  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST MON SEP 26 2005

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-271030-
630 AM AST MON SEP 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF
OUR LOCAL REGION AND NOW IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE HISPANIOLA.
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE WILL COMBINE WILL DIURNAL
AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AS A RESULT SOME MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

OTHER THAN DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ISOLATED AREAS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-271030-
630 AM AST MON SEP 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF OUR
LOCAL REGION AND NOW IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE HISPANIOLA. LINGERING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE WILL COMBINE WILL DIURNAL AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

OTHER THAN DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
ISOLATED AREAS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.