Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1119 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING FOR CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS. POPS LOOK GOOD
BUT MID LEVEL DECK IS THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED AND SCATTER
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING IN AN UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. WITH CLOUD COVER ALSO HAD TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BARELY MOVING...VERY LIGHT STEERING WINDS. SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE HIGH...WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT.

UPDATE ZONES...ISC GRIDS AND PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

454 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

FOR THE SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY).

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEAR TERM. GENERALLY FOLLOWED
THE NAM FOR THE GRIDS. SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES
ALOFT...WITH THE UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS MEANDERING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH...WILL
BRING THE THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN THE MOS NUMBERS SEEM A BIT TOO HIGH FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK LOWER ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATING A MID
LEVEL CAP.

ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATING
PRECIPITABLE WATERS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES. THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE IN THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN TODAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.
DENSE FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE A DOWNPOUR.
LEFT PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER FWC NUMBERS FOR THE
NEAR TERM. MODELS SHOW 850 TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 80. FAR EASTERN AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO PUMP HIGHS CLOSE TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK. MAIN
CHANGE TODAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
BIT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS. ADDED A RANGE TO COVER A SMALL
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT...WITH THE VALLEYS BEING A BIT COOLER AS
FOG DEVELOPS.

ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY CONDITION IN THE EXTENDED PORTIONS
FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES...OTHERWISE THEY WERE IN GOOD SHAPE.

154 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

UPDATED TO END THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

1008 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

SOME VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
DROPPING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN PLACES...THREE QUARTER INCH HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  THESE STORMS STARTED MOVING INTO THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES AT ABOUT 5 PM TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUED TO MOVE TO
THE NORTH.  THE MOST DANGEROUS STORM FORMED OVER MORGAN COUNTY WHEN
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTED WITH AN EXISTING STORM OVER MORGAN
COUNTY. THE AIR WAS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SO IT DID NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET THE STORMS GOING. THESE STORMS SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE PATCHY FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM. FOG WILL BE
HEAVIER IN THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

310 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...
MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE POPS. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM PA ACROSS SRN OH HAS RESULTED IN ENHANCED CU
FIELD...BUT MAIN CONVECTION HAS BEEN OVER WV. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
OUT AND WASH OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
FACTOR FOR US. THE BIGGER PLAYER FOR US IS THE MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN TN...AND SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN WEST AND CENTRAL KY CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE TROF OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WILL DRIFT NE...WITH A SERIES OF RIPPLES MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS IS HANDLED BY
THE MODELS...BUT THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT THERE WILL BE INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MET
MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH BASED ON THE NAM ITSELF AND THE OTHER
MODELS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV MOS POPS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY ON WED AS WELL EVEN
THOUGH MAV MOS HAS LIKELY POPS. THIS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. AIR
MASS BASICALLY THE SAME THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN TODAY...SINCE MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SLOW MOVING...ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

FEW IF ANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE A BROAD EASTERN CONUS RIDGE. EXTENDED FORECAST IS LIKELY
TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD. IT WILL BE A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME LIKE
PATTERN...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO MAKE OUR WEATHER HAVE THAT UNCOMFORTABLE STICKY FEEL. AIR MASS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO DRIFT OUR WAY BY MID WEEK.
CONVECTION IN THAT AREA HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS...VERY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THEREFORE...LEFT NIL POPS IN THE EXTENDED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...LEAVING CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING. TRENDED POPS UP FOR THE THURSDAY...FRIDAY TIME FRAME SINCE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND SINCE GUIDANCE IS COMING IN WITH LIKELY POPS. BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE HIGH PWS AND STEERING
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MEANING VERY SLOW MOVEMENT. PROBABLY WILL
ADDRESS THIS IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...A FEW SHORTWAVES PASSING TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A STRONGER EARLY TO MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-081100-
BATH-BELL-BREATHITT-CLAY-ELLIOTT-ESTILL-FLEMING-FLOYD-HARLAN-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-KNOTT-KNOX-LAUREL-LEE-LESLIE-LETCHER-MAGOFFIN-MARTIN-
MCCREARY-MENIFEE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWSLEY-PERRY-PIKE-POWELL-PULASKI-
ROCKCASTLE-ROWAN-WAYNE-WHITLEY-WOLFE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...
CAMPTON...FLEMINGSBURG...FRENCHBURG...HARLAN...HAZARD...HINDMAN...
HYDEN...INEZ...IRVINE...JACKSON...LONDON...MANCHESTER...MCKEE...
MIDDLESBORO...MONTICELLO...MOREHEAD...MOUNT STERLING...
MOUNT VERNON...OWINGSVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...PIKEVILLE...PINEVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...SOMERSET...STANTON...
WEST LIBERTY...WHITESBURG...WHITLEY CITY AND WILLIAMSBURG
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NEARLY STATIONARY OR
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN ON
MONDAY. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN VALLEYS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY
RAIN. THE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A
MILE AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT SEE
HEAVY RAIN TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT...DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

JM