Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
520 PM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

UPDATED ZONES AND COASTALS WITH TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 70.

CARROLL

 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
NOW/TONIGHT...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL BISECTING CWA ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT LOW DEVELOPMENT
JUST NW OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PULL WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING AND ISOLD SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THAT
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS IN WARM SECTOR JUST SE ACRS INLD NE FL. SQUALL
LINE JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD INTO NERN
GOMEX WILL BE MAJOR PLAYER TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES INTO FORECAST AREA
WITH MORE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD HAIL/TORNADO THREAT.
POPS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH TONIGHT IN THE LKLY/CATEGORICAL RANGE AND
MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE TO RAIN
COOLED AIR.

WED...SOME SORT OF SQUALL LINE FEATURE SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY WED
MORNING ACRS THE REGION...PROB ACRS NE FL AND GETTING READY TO MOVE
OFFSHORE...WHILE RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD PROMOTE MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY/WINDY CONDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WED NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WINDS JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW ONLY PATCHY FOG
FORMATION. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THU...WEAK HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 75-80 RANGE.

THU NIGHT...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FAST MOVING W/SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP SYSTEMS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REGION. GFS/ETA BOTH SHOWING A SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLGT CHC/CHC OF TSTMS.
DEEPER SWLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
ALTHOUGH FRONTAL SURFACE APPEARS TO BE STALLED NORTH ACRS CNTRL/SRN
GA AND PCPN FOCUS SHOULD BE THERE WITH CHC TSTMS AND MORE ALONG THE
LINE OF SLGT CHC TSTMS ACRS NERN FL. 06Z/12Z GFS AND 06Z DGEX IN
AGREEMENT FOR DEEPER LONG WAVE TROF PUSHING THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS SIMILAR TO TODAYS ACTION. FOR
NEXT TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROF SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND HAVE
KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS SLOW TO RESPOND THUS FAR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. FEEL MOST OF THE INCREASE IN WIND
INCREASE WILL COME IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ONCE SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES. HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED MODEL
CONSENSUS OF SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE NEARSHORE AND ADVISORY FOR THE
OFFSHORE. WINDS SLOWLY COME DOWN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS WILL
BE SLOWER TO RESPOND AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  78  49  77 / 100  40   0   0
SSI  62  77  54  74 /  90  70   0   0
JAX  65  82  52  78 /  90  70   0   0
SGJ  66  79  54  76 /  70  50   0   0
GNV  65  80  51  80 /  80  60   0   0
OCF  66  79  52  80 /  70  50   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY UNTIL 9 AM EST
      WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...AMZ470...AMZ472...AND
      AMZ474.

&&

PUBLIC...21/HESS
MARINE/FIRE WX....23/DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1101 AM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-231100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1101 AM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

A DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

A SQUALL LINE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL LINE MAY BECOME SEVERE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL TV OR RADIO
STATION FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS...WATCHES AND STATEMENTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE SQUALL LINE WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND BEGIN TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF A
PALM COAST TO OCALA LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED
TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI/HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
517 PM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

FLZ024-025-222300-
DUVAL FL-NASSAU FL-
517 PM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NASSAU AND DUVAL
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 600 PM
EST...

AT 517 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE
INTERNATIONAL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STRONG STORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND OCEANWAY...JACKSONVILLE
INTERNATIONAL...AMELIA CITY AND FERNANDINA BEACH THROUGH 600 PM EST.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
528 PM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

GAZ162-222330-

ECHOLS GA-
528 PM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ECHOLS COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 630 PM EST...

AT 528 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
12 MILES NORTHEAST OF STATENVILLE TO 8 MILES WEST OF STATENVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND STATENVILLE THROUGH 630 PM EST. HAIL UP TO
ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZIBURA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
530 PM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             HOMERVILLE              31.04N 82.75W
03/22/2005  0.88 INCH        CLINCH             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DEESE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
532 PM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND GST     HOMERVILLE              31.04N 82.75W
03/22/2005  60 MPH           CLINCH             GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DEESE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
605 PM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

GAZ136-151-222345-
PIERCE GA-WAYNE GA-
605 PM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PIERCE AND WAYNE
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS VALID UNTIL 645 PM EST...

AT 605 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF PATTERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH. THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND PATTERSON...SCREVEN...
BROADHURST...ODUM...GARDI...JESUP AND DOCTORTOWN THROUGH 645 PM EST.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

CARROLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
606 PM EST TUE MAR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             10 NE MANDARIN          30.26N 81.52W
03/22/2005  1.00 INCH        DUVAL              FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORTED NEAR AVENUES MALL.

&&

DEESE