Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
238 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN CWA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WHERE MOISTURE IS A BIT
DEEPER. SEVERAL REPORTS OF WATER SPOUTS OFF OF ST. JOHNS COUNTY
RECENTLY ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE. ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED TO NORTH
IN THE JACKSONVILLE AREA WITH NO ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
EXPECT THIS CONFIGURATION OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING.

UPPER LOW OF PAST FEW DAYS HAS OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH WITH AXIS
FROM SW GA NORTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA. TAIL END OF UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK SITUATED ACROSS NE FLORIDA WITH LIFT BEING ENHANCED IN THE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. TROUGH AXIS
WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD OVER NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING DRIER THAN
NORMAL ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL HELP KEEP POPS
BELOW CLIMO OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH BEST CHANCES CONTINUING TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH 1000-
850 FLOW BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WARMER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERLY FLOW SETS IN ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...REINFORCED BY A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP POPS
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH SATURDAY. AS TROUGH WEAKENS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS WILL
POPS SLOWLY INCREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS NE TO E AROUND 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-
4 FT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TOWARD NAM SOLUTION FOR WINDS AND
LOWER SEAS IN THE WAVE-WATCH MODEL SINCE GFS WANTS TO OVER-DEVELOP
SFC LOW OFF THE COAST OF FL THROUGH WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  92  69  93 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  71  87  73  88 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  67  89  70  90 /  10  20  10  20
SGJ  71  87  72  87 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  67  92  69  91 /  10  20  10  30
OCF  67  92  69  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...CAMP
MARINE/FIRE WX...SHASHY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
132 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005

FLZ033-211815-
ST. JOHNS FL-
132 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST. JOHNS COUNTY
FOR WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 132 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 1 MILE EAST OF MARINELAND DRIFTING
NORTHWEST. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
CRESCENT BEACH...ST. AUGUSTINE SHORES...ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH AND
BUTLER BEACH THROUGH 215 PM EDT. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

SHASHY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
233 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005

FLZ040-211915-

MARION FL-
233 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 233 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF OCALA AIRPORT...OR
ABOUT 4 MILES WEST OF OCALA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SANTOS...OCALA AIRPORT...
OCALA...BELLEVIEW...ANTHONY...SPARR AND LOWELL THROUGH 315 PM EDT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT MCCOY
DRIFTING NORTH. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
301 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005

FLZ040-212000-

MARION FL-
301 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION COUNTY FOR
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES EAST OF LAKE WEIR...
OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTH OF THE VILLAGES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
WEIRSDALE...OCKLAWAHA...LAKE WEIR...BELLEVIEW...MOSS BLUFF AND
JUNIPER SPRINGS THROUGH 400 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. UNPLUG COMPUTERS...TELEVISION SETS...AND
OTHER HOME APPLIANCES AS THEY ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO POWER SURGES AND MAY
BE DAMAGED BY NEARBY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

SANDRIK

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