Wind Advisory 14, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS74 KJAN 272220 CCA
NPWJAN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
419 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-280645-
/O.CAN.KJAN.LW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-051128T1200Z/
/O.COR.KJAN.WI.Y.0014.051127T2219Z-051128T1200Z/
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG...
WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP...
OAK GROVE...EPPS...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI...
CLEVELAND...INDIANOLA...RULEVILLE...GREENWOOD...GREENVILLE...
BELZONI...ISOLA...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA
419 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY. THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER CAN BE EXPECTED...
PARTICULARLY TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH OR GUSTS TO 40
MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING 
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

MSZ029>033-038-039-044>046-050>052-055>058-062>066-072>074-280645-
/O.EXB.KJAN.LW.Y.0018.051128T0300Z-051128T2100Z/
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-
LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON...
WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...STARKVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...
PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...
UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...
TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN...
STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...
PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...
COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
419 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST
MONDAY. 

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.
CROSS WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH MAY CATCH MOTORISTS OFF GUARD
MAKING DRIVING A LITTLE HAZARDOUS. 

$$

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ026>028-036-037-042-043-047>049-053-054-059>061-
280645-
/O.CON.KJAN.LW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-051128T1200Z/
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-HOLMES-ATTALA-YAZOO-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...
HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...
FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...GRENADA...VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...
CARROLLTON...WINONA...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...
GOODMAN...KOSCIUSKO...YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...
VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...PORT GIBSON...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...
BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE
419 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY. 

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED... PARTICULARLY
TONIGHT.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING. 
CROSS WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH MAY CATCH MOTORISTS OFF 
GUARD MAKING DRIVING A LITTLE HAZARDOUS.

$$

CAB

000 
WWUS74 KJAN 280449
NPWJAN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1049 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-281200-
/O.CON.KJAN.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-051128T1200Z/
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG...
WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP...
OAK GROVE...EPPS...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI...
CLEVELAND...INDIANOLA...RULEVILLE...GREENWOOD...GREENVILLE...
BELZONI...ISOLA...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA
1049 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY. 

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

MSZ029>033-038-039-044>046-050>052-055>058-062>066-072>074-281300-
/O.CON.KJAN.LW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-051128T2100Z/
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-
LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON...
WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...STARKVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...
PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...
UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...
TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN...
STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...
PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...
COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
1049 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST MONDAY...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST MONDAY. 

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.


$$

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ026>028-036-037-042-043-047>049-053-054-059>061-
281200-
/O.CON.KJAN.LW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-051128T1200Z/
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-HOLMES-ATTALA-YAZOO-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...
HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...
FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...GRENADA...VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...
CARROLLTON...WINONA...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...
GOODMAN...KOSCIUSKO...YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...
VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...PORT GIBSON...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...
BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE
1049 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY. 

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP ON
AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.


$$

EC

000 
WWUS74 KJAN 281031
NPWJAN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
431 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-281200-
/O.CON.KJAN.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-051128T1200Z/
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG...
WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP...
OAK GROVE...EPPS...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI...
CLEVELAND...INDIANOLA...RULEVILLE...GREENWOOD...GREENVILLE...
BELZONI...ISOLA...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA
431 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF MISSISSIPPI...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 25 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. THIS CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE WINDS DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE.

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

MSZ029>033-038-039-044>046-050>052-055>058-062>066-072>074-281845-
/O.CON.KJAN.LW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-051128T2100Z/
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-
LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON...
WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...STARKVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...
PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...
UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...
TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN...
STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...
PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...
COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
431 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ026>028-036-037-042-043-047>049-053-054-059>061-
281200-
/O.CON.KJAN.LW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-051128T1200Z/
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-HOLMES-ATTALA-YAZOO-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...
HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...
FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...GRENADA...VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...
CARROLLTON...WINONA...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...
GOODMAN...KOSCIUSKO...YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...
VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...PORT GIBSON...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...
BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE
431 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER KANSAS WILL PROVIDE WINDS OF 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE A ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING. 

$$

17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE TSRA APPEARS TO BE 05Z-20Z...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN KS NOW
DOWN TO 983MB AND HEADING SLOWLY NE AS UPPER JET CORE ROUNDING THE
BASE OF CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AXIS THROUGH TX. AIR MASS BEGINNING TO
RECOVER OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH 62-64F DEWPOINTS NOSING UP THE
RIVER. WHILE DAYTIME STRATUS DECK HAS SPOILED SOME HEATING AT PLACES
IN OUR CWFA...75-80F TEMPS HAVE MADE IT INTO NERN LA AND SERN MS.

FIRST SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING OVER NE TX/WRN AR COVERED BY TOR WW 876
WHICH GOES UNTIL 04Z. EXPECT THIS WW TO SHIFT EWD TO NEAR MS RIVER LATER
THIS EVENING AS MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE BACKING OFF A BIT ON EXTREME
LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WHILE KEEPING MARGINAL SBCAPES/MLCAPES. BEST
ESTIMATE IS THE SEVERE PARAMETERS YIELD THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ALONG
THE MS RIVER BY 06Z: SBCAPES/MLCAPES IN THE RANGE OF 600-800J/KG...
0-1KM AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF 500-600M*M/S*S...SIGNIFICANT SVR
PARAMETER 25-30K...AND STG TOR PARAMETER 2.5-3.0M/S*S. 18Z RUC SHOWED
6 HOUR PRES FALLS OF 4MB+ BY 06Z...SFC DEWPOINTS 65-67F AND 700-500MB
LAPSE RATES 5.5-6C. MODELS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED 500MB SPEED MAX IN W
NOSING INTO THE ARKLATEX AT 110KTS. THESE WINDS RACE THROUGH THE NW
HALF OF AR TOWARD MO BOOTHEEL OVERNIGHT SETTING UP A VERY FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FOR OUR FA AS S-N LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OF 60KTS
AT 850MB MOVES EWD. PRIME DIVERGENCE COUPLET FROM 850-200MB MOVES ALONG
A LINE FROM KPBF TO KMEM TO KMKL AND THIS SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT
ONGOING SQUALL LINE HEADING OUR DIRECTION.

PRE-SQUALL TSRA SEEMS TO BE MINIMAL HOWEVER A MAJOR PROBLEM WILL BE
HOW IN TACT THE SRN END OF THE LINE REMAINS WITH DIMINISHING CAPE ON
THE E SIDE OF THE MS RIVER FROM 06-13Z. AT THIS TIME...WE BELIEVE A
BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS COULD EMERGE S OF HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WHICH
WOULD ACTUALLY ENHANCE THE RISK FOR STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES...ALBEIT
FEWER CASES OF SUCH MOVING INTO THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE(A LITTLE
TOO SIMILIAR TO 11/24/2001).

THEN EXPECT A REDEVELOPING TSRA LINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE
PARKWAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
BECOMING AVAILABLE FOR E CENTRAL MS BY MIDDAY. THE SEVERE RISK COULD
REACH A SECONDARY PEAK FOR THE KCBM-KMEI AREAS 15-20Z AS ENOUGH
FACTORS REMAIN TOGETHER FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL INITIATION. THE BACK
OF THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD START ACCELERATING EWD BY MID AFTERNOON
MONDAY LEAVING THE START OF A DRYING AND GRADUALLY COOLING TREND IN
ITS PLACE./40/

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BY LATE AFTERNOON
PER OP GFS MODEL. HOWEVER...I HELD SOME LOW POPS OVER INTO THE
EVENING...MAINLY UP AGAINST THE STATE LINE...TO HEDGE AGAINST THE
SLOWER NAM SOLUTION COMING TO PASS. IF ANY PRECIP DOES LINGER PAST
00Z TUESDAY IN MY EAST CWA THEN ANTICIPATE ONLY BENIGN REMNANTS OF
DEPARTING CONVECTION...AND NOTHING SEVERE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEHIND
THE FRONT TEMPORARILY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY
COME BACK TO COVER AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF OF THE REGION BY 12Z AS
COLD TEMPS ALOFT UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW COME SWINGING IN. WENT NEAR
MAV TEMPS FOR LOWS AS MINIMUMS MAINLY FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES SEEM A
GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE LACK OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

COLD AIR CONTINUING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ENSURE A
RATHER CHILLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THIS PERIOD
WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF A WIND CHILL WHILE DAYTIME CLOUDS AT LEAST
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR LIMIT WARMING SUNSHINE. WENT
CLOSE TO MAV HIGHS (MAINLY 50S) BUT CUT LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING 2
TO 3 DEGREES AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AND THE MAV STATS HAVE SHOWS A STRONG WARM BIAS FOR US IN THESE
SITUATIONS LATELY. EXPECT MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES GREATLY FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE UPPER PATTERN SEEMS TO TRANSITION INTO A SORT OF QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WITH WAVES OF
JET STREAM ENERGY TRACKING QUICKLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NATION.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SEVERAL SHOTS OF PRECIP COMING THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. ALSO...MODELS INDICATE COLD AIR PERCHED ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL MAKE A FEW INTRUSIONS AND WILL BE A SOURCE
OF BAROCLINICITY TO AMPLIFY A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OR TWO DURING
THIS TIME. ALL THAT SAID...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME WITH THE DETAILS RIGHT NOW...AND THEIR LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY DOES NOT INSPIRE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN FINE OUTPUTS (LIKE
THE MEX). THUS...I AM INCLUDING 20 POPS PAST FRIDAY WITH HOPEFULLY
10 POPS COVERING THE VERY MEAGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE GENERALLY A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE AND I WENT CLOSER TO THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STATED ISSUES WITH THE
MEX STATS. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR DECK OF STRATUS OVER THE AREA FINALLY BREAKING UP FOR THE MOST PART
WITH A FEW SMALL -SHRA AT 3-5K FT. WINDS ALSO RESPONDING TO DEEP SURFACE
LOW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING ALONG MS RIVER TO 20-25KTS IN GUSTS.
EXPECT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...FOR GLH...GWO AND JAN AS SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 18KTS AND GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS(A FEW SVR) WILL APPROACH GLH/GWO/TVR 07-10Z TONIGHT
REACHING JAN TOWARD 11-14Z AND LOCAL FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY. THE LINE PROGRESSES TO NEAR CBM-MCB LINE BY 16Z
AND MEI AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER./40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  68  42  57 /  54  81  11  10
MERIDIAN      65  74  44  58 /  31  90  28  13
VICKSBURG     59  66  39  56 /  70  53   9   6
HATTIESBURG   65  76  45  61 /  20  71  24   9
NATCHEZ       61  66  41  58 /  60  49   7   5
GREENVILLE    57  65  39  54 /  92  36  10   7
GREENWOOD     59  65  40  53 /  70  74  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ044-
     MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ057-
     MSZ058-MSZ062-MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-
     MSZ074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025-
     MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ040-MSZ041.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ026-MSZ027-
     MSZ028-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ047-MSZ048-MSZ049-
     MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-
     LAZ015.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ016-LAZ023-
     LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0607 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
281207-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
0607 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BROOKHAVEN...TO THE JACKSON METRO
AREA...TO COLUMBUS.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY. TONIGHT...STRONG WIND SHEAR (OR
THE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT) WILL SPREAD OVER
THE REGION AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION.
THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS TO SUPPORT A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM RAYVILLE LOUISIANA TO VICKSBURG AND GRENADA MISSISSIPPI.

IN ADDITION...THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. WITH
INTENSE WIND SHEAR MOVING OVER A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND LITTLE TO
INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP. THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO FOSTER THIS DEVELOPMENT AND OBSERVATIONS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY AND TONIGHT TO ACCURATELY ASSESS
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. IF SUPERCELLS DO DEVELOP...DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR IN
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ARE URGED TO KEEP ADVISED OF THE MOST UP
TO DATE FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO INTENSIFY IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF LINE FROM
GRENADA TO THE JACKSON METRO AREA TO NATCHEZ. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED.

MOTORISTS ON EAST TO WEST HIGHWAYS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
INCREASING CROSS WINDS LATER ON SUNDAY AND KEEP A FIRM GRIP ON
THEIR STEERING WHEELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
ON MONDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF RISK IS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR.

A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LINE HEATING IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI RESULTING IN A
RAPID INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION...THE SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO RE-INTENSIFY AND MOVE THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ACROSS EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING
COLUMBUS...STARKVILLE AND MERIDIAN.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.