Tornado Warning 26, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
805 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY WITH CONVECTION TRYING TO
INCREASE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A BROADER
SHIELD OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS AFFECTING COUNTIES IN
MS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
BEEN RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WHICH NOW
EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF IS ROUGHLY POSITIONED OVER (OR JUST
SOUTHWEST) OF THE JACKSON METRO AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE IS DRIVING CONVECTIVE DEVELOP WHILE A LACK OF RADAR
ECHOES BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT IS SPREADING ACROSS THE RIVER AND INTO
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED EAST AND MORE THAN LIKELY
REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT. HOWEVER...EASTERN (PARTICULARLY
SOUTHEASTERN) PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN AN AREA
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DISTURBANCE DRIVING THE
ACTIVITY STILL REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST AND WILL COME THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MORNING AS THE
STRONG ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THE
TORNADIC POTENTIAL GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM THE WEST WE EXPECT
THERE WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATES AND THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO
FUEL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A DRY SLOT IN THE ATMOSPHERE HEADED
TOWARD SOUTHWEST ZONES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY LIMIT THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE SO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST HERE.

GIVEN THE DECREASED TORNADIC POTENTIAL IN WESTERN ZONES WE WILL
BEGIN TRIMMING BACK TORNADO WATCHES FROM THE WEST STARTING THIS
HOUR. AN UPDATE WILL BE MADE TO THE ZONES TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES
AND TO INCORPORATE TWEAKS IN OTHER FORECAST FIELDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
241 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
272041-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
241 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANASAS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
FOR TONIGHT.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL OCCUR WITH SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN THE REGION FOR TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA BY THIS EVENING.  COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL
SURGE INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DESTABILIZE THE
AIR MASS. WIND FLOW WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT TO INCREASE WIND SHEAR...AN ESSENTIAL
INGREDIENT TO SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A STRONG JET
STREAM CORE PUNCHES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA..STRONG DYNAMICS WILL
SUPPORT DEEP  CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.

THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE
WHOLE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL THE POTENTIAL OF  SOME  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HAIL AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
PASSES OVERHEAD.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

...FLOODING...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PONDING WATER CAN BE
EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS. RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST AROUND
MIDNIGHT BUT PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR EAST MISSISSIPPI AREAS.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SUSTAIN WINDS OF 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF AROUND 30 MPH DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED  THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
820 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N BOLTON              32.38N 90.46W
03/26/2005                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TREES DOWN ON BOLTON AND
            BROWSVILLE ROAD.

&&

CAW/CAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
821 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NW CLINTON            32.41N 90.42W
03/26/2005                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN OFF
            OF HIGHWAY 22 ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLINTON.

&&

CAW/CAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
823 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     HAIL             BOLTON                  32.35N 90.46W
03/26/2005  1.50 INCH        HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED INCH AND HALF SIZED HAIL IN
            THE CITY OF BOLTON.

&&

CAW/CAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
824 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     HAIL             EDWARDS                 32.33N 90.60W
03/26/2005  1.50 INCH        HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED INCH AND A HALF SIZED HAIL IN
            THE CITY OF EDWARDS.

&&

CAW/CAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
825 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             CLINTON                 32.34N 90.33W
03/26/2005  1.50 INCH        HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED INCH AND A HALF HAIL IN THE
            CITY OF CLINTON.

&&

CAW/CAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
828 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROOKHAVEN              31.58N 90.45W
03/26/2005                   LINCOLN            MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED TREES DOWN IN THE LOYD
            STAR COMMUNITY IN BROOKHAVEN.

&&

CAW/CAB