Severe Thunderstorm Warning 588, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 152035
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
235 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

MSC015-051-152045-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0588.000000T0000Z-051115T2100Z/
CARROLL MS-HOLMES MS-
235 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HOLMES AND CARROLL COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3344 8979 3342 8978 3341 8966 3331 8966
      3329 8971 3318 8979 3326 9014 3328 9016
      3358 8979

$$

GARRETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
105 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...WARM ADVECTION SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. 18Z
SOUNDINGS REVEAL AN INTERESTING SCENARIO ACROSS REGION. 18Z JAN
SOUNDING HAS WARMED SOMEWHAT IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
CAP HAVING DEVELOPED. FARTHER SW...LCH SOUNDING IS QUITE UNSTABLE
WITH SBCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG...BUT FAIRLY WEAK WIND PROFILE. MID LEVEL
WINDS MUCH STRONGER TO THE NW WHERE LZK HAD 65 KT AT 500 MB ON 18Z
SOUNDING.

18Z RUC WOULD SEEM TO IMPLY THAT BEST OVERLAY OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS GENERALLY N/E OF I-55 AND I-20.
MLCAPE VALUES APCHG 1500 J/KG EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA ALONG WITH 0-1
KM SR HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/DYNAMICS ALSO SHOULD IMPROVE AS 20-40M 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL...THIS AREA EXPECTED TO
HAVE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISK OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE 21Z TO 00Z TIMEFRAME AS CELLS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS
BUILD/MOVE INTO NE AREAS AND INTENSIFY.

FARTHER S/W...MAIN RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE WITH THE
LINE OF STORMS FORMING RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS
HAVE VEERED AROUND SOMEWHAT OVER AR/LA...WHICH IS LIKELY DECREASING
THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL STORMS
THERE. AS LINE OF STORMS SWEEPS ACROSS REGION...MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH LEWP/BOW
STRUCTURES. TIMING OF FRONT/SQUALL LINE LOOKS TO BE 22Z-00Z GRENADA
TO VICKSBURG...00Z-02Z STARKVILLE TO JACKSON METRO TO NATCHEZ...
02Z-05Z ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ026-MSZ027-
     MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ032-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042-
     MSZ043-MSZ047-MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ059-MSZ060-
     MSZ061.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-
     MSZ025-MSZ034-MSZ035.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-
     LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1124 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
161724-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
1124 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
RISKS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO YAZOO CITY TO MACON MISSISSIPPI.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES. A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE THERE WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE CELLS
DEVELOP WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL COME FROM
THESE SUPERCELL STORMS. ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER
FOR ANY OF THESE CELLS TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING LONG TRACK STRONG TORNADOES. THIS ENHANCED
TORNADO RISK IS MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO
LOUISIANA TO YAZOO CITY TO MACON MISSISSIPPI. THIS SEVERE
ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 1 PM FOR WESTERN AREAS AND LAST
INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS AND THE SQUALL LINE PUSH EAST.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE SQUALL WILL BE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA AND STEADILY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
DURING THIS TIME...AN AREA FROM LEXINGTON TO MACON MISSISSIPPI
WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED TORNADO RISK WITH SOME TORNADOES
POTENTIALLY STRONG. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE THE SEVERE
LINE OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH WITH THE RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADOES AND HAIL. THE SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO EXIT THE
REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AN AREA
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM EUPORA TO JACKSON TO BUDE WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AS
THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WIND
SPEEDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.  BY THURSDAY MORNING...MOST PLACES ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...EAST LOUISIANA...AND MISSISSIPPI
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.