Severe Thunderstorm Warning 532, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 240012
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
712 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

MSC011-240022-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0532.000000T0000Z-050824T0030Z/
BOLIVAR MS-
712 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BOLIVAR COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF 
THE AREA AND WEAKENED.

LAT...LON 3397 9076 3379 9098 3355 9086 3372 9066

$$

MME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND ARE CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA...NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS. THIS HAS ALLOWED MANY AREAS
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO AGAIN GET
INTO THE UPPER 90S. WITH THE TEMPS THIS WARM AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AND UNTAPPED.

THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
ACROSS THIS UNTAPPED REGION LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY LASTING INTO THE LATTER EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE AIR...A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
ANOTHER THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FREQUENT TO ALMOST CONSTANT LIGHTNING.

AS THE 9 PM APPROACHES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO DIE
DOWN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THAT SAID OVERALL
ACTIVITY WILL STILL LIKELY LAST PAST 9 PM.

ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE A HARDER TIME DEVELOPING MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THERE MAY BE A FEW STORMS ACROSS THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT AS
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI PUSH SOUTH. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING BY SUNSET BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHERN AREAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY TOMORROW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
THE GFS IS ALSO INDICATING THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ACROSS THE AREA WILL STILL BE NEAR 2.2 INCHES...ML CAPES WILL BE
BETWEEN 2000 TO 2400. WITH THESE FACTORS EXPECT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN FORM WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SOUTH WITH THE SEA BREEZE. FEEL THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR SEVERE BUT A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW FOR THE WESTERN AREAS
...TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S
COMBINE FOR HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE./#15/

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE CONSISTENT
WITH THE SEASONAL UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HOWEVER THE UK...EUROPEAN...NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS WERE
SHOWING SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AREA FOR THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE GFS TAKES IT UP THE EAST COAST. MANUAL PROGS TAKES THE SYSTEM TO
THE CENTRAL GULF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO EACH MODEL
HAD SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM. SO HAVE
LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RANGE FROM 1.7 TO 2.2 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS TRIES TO SHOW AN MCS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE. WILL KEEP
SCATTERED POPS ONLY WITH THIS FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEAK AS WELL...WITH THE UPPER JET STAYING NORTH. BY SATURDAY...THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE REDEVELOPING FROM THE WEST. WITH UPPER
RIDGE AROUND KEPT WITH LOW SCATTERED POPS DURING THE DAY AND MAINLY
ISOLATED POPS IN THE EVENING. THE GFS WAS GENERATING SOME
PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY DRY WITH LOW
CHANCES OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. SO WENT CLOSE TO LOW POPS ON
GUIDANCE. AS FAR AS THE TROPICAL FEATURE IS CONCERN SINCE IT APPEARS
TO STAY EAST OF THE REGION...GOING TO LOWER POPS APPEARS TO BE THE
ROUTE TO TAKE...SINCE WE WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE. GENERALLY WENT
WITH WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS AND ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND SKY COVER A
LITTLE.

/#17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  95  74  94 /  30  40  20  40
MERIDIAN      72  95  72  93 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ040-MSZ041-
     MSZ042-MSZ047.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-LAZ015-
     LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

24/15/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
309 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
242009-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
309 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH IF HIGHWAY 82.

A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY...AND THESE STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED AS THEY
MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEY
COULD BECOME STRONG WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 40 TO 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE EVENING.

...SEASONAL THREATS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 105 OVER MOST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE HOTTEST WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM FERRIDAY LOUISIANA TO
YAZOO CITY AND GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
556 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-034-035-040-041-240000-
ASHLEY-BOLIVAR-CHICOT-EAST CARROLL-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-MOREHOUSE-
SHARKEY-SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-WEST CARROLL-
556 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE DELTA
REGION...

AT 550 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER BOLIVAR AND WASHINGTON COUNTY.
THESE STORMS ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO THEY
ARE CONTINUING TO PULSE UP AND ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY AND MAY NEED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS.

IN ADDITION TO THAT THERE ARE STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
PORTIONS OF THE DELTA.

ALL OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH...FREQUENT TO CONSTANT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

BANNAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
623 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     GOLDEN TRIANGLE AIRPORT 33.45N 88.59W
08/23/2005  57 MPH           LOWNDES            MS   ASOS

            GTR OBSERVATION REPORTED 57 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

WESTER