Severe Thunderstorm Warning 487, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 302252
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
549 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

MSC021-049-302259-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0487.000000T0000Z-050730T2300Z/
CLAIBORNE MS-HINDS MS-
549 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HINDS AND 
NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LEVELS.

HOWEVER...AT 550 PM CDT...WEATHER RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
CONTINUING OVER SOUTHWESTERN HINDS AND NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE 
COUNTIES.  THESE STORMS EXTENDED FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF 
HERMANVILLE...TO NEAR LEARNED.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MILES AN HOUR 
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE 
STORMS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN THE PONDING OF WATER 
ON AREA ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FURTHER UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED ON THESE THUNDERSTORMS BY YOUR 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

LAT...LON 3214 9053 3228 9066 3215 9079 3210 9098
      3192 9082 3199 9072 3205 9072

$$

DAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
354 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING UPDATE WAS NOT QUITE RIGHT...BUT DECIDED NOT TO DO ANOTHER
UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR THE MOST PART WERE IN THE UPPER
80S...LOWERING TEMPS WAS GOOD...EXCEPT AT JAN WHERE TEMP SO FAR HAS
REACHED 91. BACKED OFF OF THE RAIN FOR CENTRAL AREAS...HOWEVER
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...STRETCHING ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
CWA. STORMS NEAR LAWRENCE/JEFFDAVIS AND SIMPSON COUNTIES HAVE NOT
MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WITH
WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
WESTWARD MOVEMENT...MAY GO WITH 10 POPS...BUT LEAVE OUT OF ZONES FOR
NOW FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55...MAINLY ALONG THE RIVER. ALTHOUGH FFG
VALUES ARE NEAR 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR...STORM TOTALS SHOW ISOLATED
AMOUNTS FROM 1-3 INCHES. FOR TONIGHT MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CHANCES TO DECREASE WITH LOSS
OF AFTERNOON HEATING...SO SHOWERS SHOULD BE GOOD LATER
TONIGHT...GENERALLY EAST. FOR SUNDAY MODELS DIFFER A GOOD BIT...ETA
BEING DRY. BASED ON DEVELOPMENT TODAY...DECIDED TO GO WITH GFS. WILL
CONTINUE GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE. PRETTY MUCH STICKING TO GUIDANCE FOR POPS. AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADES AND THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WEST
SLIGHTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST...THE GFS
SOLUTIONS WAS GOOD. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE TEMPS...EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN AROUND 15Z SUNDAY...SO HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.
UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 SEEMED GOOD. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SKY CONDITIONS. THOUGHT CLOUDS WOULD BURN OFF FOR THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE RAIN
ENDED. HOWEVER WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE...CLOUDS HAVE
FILLED IN AND MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE IF AT ALL...SO WILL GO BACK
AND INCREASE ALL AREAS TO PARTLY CLOUDY. EVERYTHING ELSE WAS OK.

LONG TERM...A RATHER WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE 1ST PART OF NEXT WEEK (MON-WED). THE UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST AND
SITUATE THEMSELVES OVER MS. ITS HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT LOCATION
OR POSITION WHERE THESE FEATURES WILL SET UP. WHAT I HAVE SEEN FROM
THE MODELS LEANS ME TO ORIENT THE AXIS NEAR THE TRACE. AREAS ALONG
AND TO THE RIGHT OF THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL
EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THAT...THESE ARE THE AREAS I HAVE INCREASED POPS
ABOVE GUIDANCE. AS EACH DAY PASSES...THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCH WESTWARD AND THE WHOLE CWA SHOULD GET INTO THE ACT BY TUE-WED.
DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR JUST
BELOW CLIMO. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS SOMEWHAT...BUT I DONT THINK
IT IS GOOD ENOUGH AND I HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES.

FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK (THU-SAT) THE CRYSTAL BALL BECOMES A
BIT MORE FOGGY. LATEST GFS(12Z) IS NOW HOLDING ONTO THE UPPER SHEAR
AXIS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. THIS WOULD MEAN GOOD RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
FRI OR SAT. HOWEVER...I AM NOT READY TO FOLLOW ALONG JUST YET. OTHER
MODELS AND PREV RUNS OF THE GFS WERE INDICATING SOME RIDGING TO OUR
NORTH AND THE SHEAR AXIS WOULD GET PUSHED WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE
BUILDING RIDGE. DUE TO THIS NEW SOLUTION AND LOW CONFIDENCE...I WILL
STAY WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE AND LEAVE DAYS 5-7 ALONE. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR A FEW MORE RUNS AND OTHER MODELS TO COME AROUND TO BELIEVE
THE NEW SOLUTION FROM THE GFS. WE WILL GET IT IN A DAY OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL GO WITH VCTS/VCSH FOR JAN...MEI...HBG THROUGH THE EVENING.
ACTIVITY NEAR THE TAF SITES HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST. EXPECTING
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 1 OR 2Z. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MORE
OF THE SAME FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HAZE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND EVENTUALLY PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. FOR NOW JAN IS THE ONLY SITE
WITH RAIN FALLING...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3SM. EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY...BUT THROUGH THE MORNING ONLY
INCLUDED VCSH. WILL PROBABLY LEAVE OUT OF GWO/GLH THROUGH 00Z...BUT
ADD TO JAN AROUND 18Z. EVEN WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND MORE RAIN SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  92  72  92 /  10  20  20  40
MERIDIAN      70  92  70  92 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

07/CME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
322 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
312022-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
322 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AUGUST 6TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.