Severe Thunderstorm Warning 472, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1140 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS
MORNING...PERSISTENT SHEAR AXIS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WAS NOTED OVER THE REGION. ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THIS MORNINGS DISSIPATED MCS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS
PUSHING TOWARD THE REGION. ALSO AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS COASTAL
CONVECTION MOVING UP INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND WITH BOUNDARIES AROUND HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST. /#17/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
528 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
051028-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
528 AM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...EAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.	THE PRIMARY RISK FROM ANY STRONG STORMS
WILL BE WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MILES AN HOUR AND HAIL SMALLER THAN
THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY.  THIS COMPLEX WILL PLACE SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE REGION...WHICH MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON.  WHEN COMBINED
WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE AND A
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE QUITE STRONG.

BECAUSE STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DEPENDENT UPON
WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE EXACT LOCATION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.  YOU ARE
ADVISED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSON.

MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 3 OVER THE YUCATAN. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT THE BEST FORECAST RIGHT NOW BRINGS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NUMBER 3 UP TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...NAMED CINDY...AND MAKING
LANDFALL JUST TO THE EAST OF CAMERON...LOUISIANA. AFTER LANDFALL
THE FORECAST CURVES THE SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. IF THIS
PROVES TO BE CORRECT A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS.
PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MORNING OF
MONDAY...JULY 11.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.