Severe Thunderstorm Warning 463, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2005

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE THAT HAD TRIGGERED
AN MCS WITH A GOOD COOL POOL OVER EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.
ON THE SURFACE AN ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO BE DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION. THE 850 THETA RIDGE AXIS AND MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PUSH
THE COMPLEX SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION...POSSIBLE CAUSING SOME EVENING
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH...WHERE BEST EVENING LOW POPS WILL BE
FORECASTED. THE GFS SEEMED TO DO THE BEST JOB IN TRACKING THE COMPLEX
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. MID LEVEL WIND FLOW OF AROUND 20KTS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
STILL EXPECT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP THAT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BELIEVE THE POSSIBILITY
FOR GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY OCCUR OVER EAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE WEAK FORCING FROM THE TROUGH
SHOULD PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT. ALSO SOME COASTAL CONVECTION SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN ORDER TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION
IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...TO BE
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY SHOULD NOT BE A WHOLE LOT DIFFERENT THAN TODAY IN TERMS OF
THUNDERSTORM LOCATION AND COVERAGE. THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS ACTIVE AND HAVE PLACED LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY ARE TRICKY WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTING UPPER
90S MAY BE MET IN THE DELTA REGION...WITH MID 90S ELSEWHERE. WILL KEEP
LOW TO MID 90S AREA WIDE...AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS DO NOT FAVOR UPPER
90S. /#17/

LONGTERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TYPICAL OF
JULY TO PERSIST. THE SFC FRONT THAT HAS AFFECTED THE AREA OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL WASH OUT...HOWEVER A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT WILL
LINGER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC/LOW END CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OPS MED RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD IN OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
WEAK TROUGHING. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING A LARGE AREA OF
MOISTURE/DISTURBED WX OVER THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN. TROPICAL
CONSEQUENCES ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...VIEW THE LATEST TWOAT
FROM THE NHC FOR MORE INFO...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SPREAD A PLUME OF HIGH
PW AIR (2-2.5 INCHES) INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK. CURRENT POP
FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION QUITE WELL...WITH VALUES IN THE HIGH
CHC RANGE TUE THROUGH THU. BULK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME
SHOULD EXIT TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE AREA WILL STILL BE
INFLUENCED BY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND
HAVE STOOD PAT WITH CLIMO POPS.

TEMP WISE...A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST IN THIS REGARD.  AM EXPECTING
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY THU THROUGH THUR. THUS
HAVE KEPT HIGHS BELOW AVG IN MY SOUTH AND CLOSER TO AVG ELSEWHERE.
CERTAINLY COULD BE COOLER IF CONVECTION OVERSPREADS THE REGION EARLY
IN THE DAY. BY WEEKS END...TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO VALUES TYPICAL OF
JULY. /GAGAN/

&&

.AVIATION...WITH CURRENT INSTABILITY TRENDS EXPECT VCTS AT KMEI AND
KHBG...BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOST STATIONS SHOULD DROP DOWN IN
THE MVFR RANGE ALONG...OR SHORTLY AFTER...MIDNIGHT. TEMPORARY IFR
REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL TOWARD DAWN ALTHOUGH IM ONLY
CONFIDENT AT PINPOINTING KGWO AND KGLH FOR AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VCTS SHOWERS AND STORMS COMING IN ON MAINLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY KMEI AND KHBG WITH A LOW CHANCE AT KJAN.
/#17/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM: 17
LONG TERM: GAGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
258 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
031958-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
258 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE AREA MOST PRONE
TO GETTING SEVERE STORMS IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A WINNSBORO
LOUISIANA TO PORT GIBSON AND LAUREL MISSISSIPPI LINE. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
...GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN THE RISK AREA SUGGESTS THAT
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY JULY 9TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2005

LAZ023>026-MSZ053>055-059>066-072>074-030200-
CATAHOULA LA-CONCORDIA LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS LA-
ADAMS MS-CLAIBORNE MS-COPIAH MS-COVINGTON MS-
FORREST MS-FRANKLIN MS-JEFFERSON MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
JONES MS-LAMAR MS-LAWRENCE MS-LINCOLN MS-MARION MS-
SIMPSON MS-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
579 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN LOUISIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 PARISHES

IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA

CATAHOULA             CONCORDIA             FRANKLIN
TENSAS

IN MISSISSIPPI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

COPIAH                SIMPSON

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

JEFFERSON DAVIS       LAWRENCE              LINCOLN
MARION

IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

COVINGTON             FORREST               JONES
LAMAR

IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

ADAMS                 CLAIBORNE             FRANKLIN
JEFFERSON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BASSFIELD...BROOKHAVEN...BUDE...
COLLINS...COLUMBIA...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...FAYETTE...FERRIDAY...
HARRISONBURG...HATTIESBURG...HAZLEHURST...JONESVILLE...LAUREL...
LUMBERTON...MAGEE...MEADVILLE...MENDENHALL...MONTICELLO...
MOUNT OLIVE...NATCHEZ...NEW HEBRON...NEWELLTON...PORT GIBSON...
PRENTISS...PURVIS...ROXIE...ST. JOSEPH...VIDALIA...WATERPROOF...
WESSON...WEST FERRIDAY...WEST HATTIESBURG AND WINNSBORO.