Severe Thunderstorm Warning 459, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1120 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UPDATE COMING OUT DUE TO RADAR TRENDS.
OUTFLOW BNDRY BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP LIKE A CHRISTMAS TREE AND A FEW
TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BNDRY AS WELL. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SEVERE TSRA. MAIN CONCERN IS GOING TO BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPING LINE ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BNDRY. HAVE UPPED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH TO 70% AND WILL LIKELY BE
GREATER THAN THAT. ALSO UPPER POPS IN THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA
AND TSRA FILTERING IN FROM THE MCS THAT WAS MOVING OUT OF EAST OK.
WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH HAVE NOT COME
ANY NEAR THE FORECAST HIGH SO I HAVE LOWERED TEMPS IN THE GLH AND
GWO AREA. ELSEWHERE HIGHS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ALREADY BEEN SEEN AND NOW
WITH NUMEROUS TSRA AND GREATER CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY UNTIL
RAIN COOLS THE AREA OFF.

ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1029 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
021529-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
1029 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS AREA
IS PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RAYVILLE..LOUISIANA
TO COLUMBUS...MISSISSIPPI.

AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA IT MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
THAT COULD POSSIBLY BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO OR GREATER THAN 60
MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AS THE FREEZING
LEVEL ALOFT HAS DROPPED SOME. ANY HAIL THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE SMALL BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING HAIL UP
TO AN INCH WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF A GREENVILLE TO DEKALB
LINE. THE MAIN RISK FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY MORNING.
STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ACCESS
TO A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUBSIDE AS A RESULT.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER...HAM RADIO...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER
THAT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1127 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005

LAZ015-016-023-025-MSZ042>045-047>051-053>057-011730-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-FRANKLIN LA-HINDS-JASPER-LEAKE-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-NESHOBA-NEWTON-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SIMPSON-SMITH-TENSAS-
WARREN-YAZOO-
1127 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

AT 1125 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR RAYVILLE...
LOUISIANA...TO 10 MILES NORTH OF VICKSBURG...THEN NORTHEAST ALONG
THE BIG BLACK RIVER TO NEAR PICKENS. THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HAIL.

THESE STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH THE PRIMARY RISK. FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL...
WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO LATER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSON.

GERARD