Severe Thunderstorm Warning 454, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

.SHORT TERM...THIS MORNINGS SNDG SHOWED A DECENT DRY LOW LAYER OVER
THE AREA AND THIS RESULTED IN THE CU FIELD TAKING QUITE A WHILE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CAP ALSO KEPT
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS WE HAVE
SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. SHRA AND TSRA DID START TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL NO CHANGE TO THE THINKING THAT
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
GONE BY MIDNIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT FOR THE MOST PART.

FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE A SIMILAR PATTERN TO TODAY HOWEVER...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO START OFF A LITTLE EARLIER THAN IT DID TODAY.  SEVERAL
OLD BOUNDARIES COULD BE LAYING AROUND FROM TODAYS CONVECTION THAT
WILL AID IN SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST PULLING IN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE.  WE ARE STILL PRETTY SATURATED WITH PWS AROUND 2 INCHES
AND K-INDICES ARE STILL RIGHT AROUND 34 SO ANY RAINFALL WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF BEING QUITE HEAVY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DIE OUT AND BE OUT OF OUR HAIR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA.  CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE
THAT WILL BE ENTERING INTO THE GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING US
MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER AROUND 70 FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA.

FOR SATURDAY...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE TROPICAL STORM ARLENES AFFECTS
ON THE AREA.  WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SHE MOVES NORTHWARD AND WE COULD BEGIN SEEING RAIN AS
EARLY AS MID-DAY.  /CAB/MUELLER/

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK)...PRIMARY CONCERN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AS TROPICAL CYCLONE ARLENE CONTINUES A
NORTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE MS/AL BORDER. MODELS
INDICATE SOME TENDENCY TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL BEHAVIOR ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF SYSTEM BY THIS WEEKEND. TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
ARE FORECASTED TO POINT STRONGLY INTO EASTERN MS LATE SATURDAY UNDER
INCREASING AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE
WITH ANY SORT OF LAND-FALLING TROPICAL SYSTEM...EXPECT THERE WILL BE
A SHARP CUT-OFF BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND NO RAIN...BUT IT IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THAT WILL HAPPEN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
THE BEST GUESS IS FOR THE AREA EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 TO RECEIVE THE
BULK OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH HEAVIEST OCCURRING FROM COLUMBUS TO
MERIDIAN. MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS DOES BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND HAVE KEPT POPS GOING. /EC/

/CAB/MUELLER/

.LONG TERM...

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM: CAB/24 MUELLER/13
LONG TERM: EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
341 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
102041-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
341 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL..WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH...AND SMALL HAIL LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA LATE SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A EUPORA TO MORTON TO PURVIS LINE. STAY TUNED FOR
LATER DEVELOPMENTS CONCERNING THIS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY IN SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI OTHERWISE...IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT JUNE 15.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

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