Severe Thunderstorm Warning 447, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 072234
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
534 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

MSC073-072244-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0447.000000T0000Z-050607T2300Z/
LAMAR MS-
534 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LAMAR COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

LAT...LON 3111 8934 3127 8943 3118 8966 3102 8965
      3102 8953

$$

DAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2005

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A SMALL BUBBLE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE DIVERGENCE HAS KEPT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY SO FAR TODAY AS CONVECTION FIRES ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE
RELATIVE CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ARE CREATING A
MODERATLELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER NE LA WITH LIFTED INDICES
RUNNING AROUND -8. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
NORTHWARD INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER  NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL MAKE IT
MUCH FARTHER NORTHEAST AND WILL GO WITH SMALL PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE BETTER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW...BETTER
THAN TODAY AS EASTERN EXTENT OF ACTIVE SEA-BREEZE MOVES FARTHER
INLAND. THE GFS INDICATES SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COULD SUPPORT
BETTER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AS WELL. /EC/

.LONG TERM...ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A FEW
FACTORS FOR THE LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE A RIDGE IN THE EAST...A
TROUGH IN THE WEST...AND A DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF.  HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DO NOT YET AGREE ON WHERE THIS POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE MAY END
UP. BUT MORE ON THAT IN A BIT. FOR MORE IMMEDIATE TIMING...THURSDAY
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA.  AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
THE AIRMASS ABOVE OUR REGION WILL REMAIN SATURATED WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ALREADY NEAR 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA.  THE NEAR
STATIONARY MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS MENTIONED BY THE EARLIER SHIFT WILL
STILL BE LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.  MODEL CAPE VALUES...1500 TO 1900
J/KG...CONTINUE TO INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION.
WITH ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS LIKELY.  THEN
WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS SOME SORT OF WARM CORE DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ALTHOUGH OTHER MODELS HAVE NOT TAKEN THIS SAME PATH THEY
ARE ALL STILL INDICATING THE EXISTENCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND IT
WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.  IF IT DOES
TAKE THE GFS PROJECTED PATH RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
SURFACE WINDS RELATED TO THE ANONYMOUS DISTURBANCE COULD BRING IN
MORE MOISTURE TO AN ALREADY SATURATED AIRMASS.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETS UP OVER THE EAST AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
GIVING US A CHANCE TO DRY OUT FROM THE WEEKEND AND PROVIDING US WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES./13/

&&

.AVIATION...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF LOW STRATUS (IFR/LIFR CIGS) LATE
TONIGHT EARLY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY FOR JAN/MEI/HBG SITES...WITH
VSBYS DOWN TO 3-5 MILES IN FOG. WOULD GO LOWER WITH FOG...BUT IT
DOES NOT APPEAR NOW THAT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO
TAF SITES.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM: EC
LONG TERM: MUELLER/CAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
419 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
082119-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
419 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...OVER THE IMMEDIATE ARKLAMISS REGION...AND
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. THE AREA MOST AFFECTED WILL BE
WEST AND SOUTH OF A GREENVILLE TO VICKSBURG TO NATCHEZ TO LAUREL
LINE. THE PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY JUNE 14.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             3 W HATTIESBURG         31.31N 89.36W
06/07/2005  1.00 INCH        LAMAR              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT HIGHWAY US 98 AND OLD
            HIGHWAY US 11 BY LARMAR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGERS.

&&

GILMORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
450 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

MSZ066-073-074-072230-
FORREST-JONES-LAMAR-
450 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PINE BELT...

AT 450 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR FROM PURVIS TO
OVETT.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT AT THIS
TIME.

YOU CAN EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MILES AN HOUR...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.  IN
ADDITION...BRIEF BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN WILL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR OTHER NEWS MEDIA OUTLETS...
FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

BUTTS