Severe Thunderstorm Warning 380, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005

.SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIMITED ACROSS FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FAIR AMOUNT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPED
ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SE MS DURING LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT MUCH OF THIS HAS DIMINISHED. OTHER
AREA OF FOCUS HAS BEEN ALONG CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN
AL ALONG HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BACK INTO SOUTHERN AR. BEST ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN NE OF FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION HAS
HAD SOME STRONGER STORMS LAST HOUR OR SO. NEW ACTIVITY IS NOW
FIRING TO OUR W ACROSS SOUTHERN AR WHERE UPPER TROUGH AND OLD MCV IS
INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS COULD OCCUR IN NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WHERE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS GREATEST...ALTHOUGH BOTH PARAMETERS
ARE QUITE MARGINAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E/SE ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY
AND EVENTUALLY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. FRONT AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BEHIND IT SEEMS TO BE
PROGRESSING A BIT QUICKER THAN MODELS SHOW...SO TRENDED TOWARD
FASTER GFS AND EVEN A HAIR FASTER THAN THAT FOR TIMING OF PRECIP.
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS AFTER 00Z EXCEPT FAR NW WHERE
PRECIP THREAT SHOULD START TAPERING OFF BY MID EVENING. WILL STILL
HAVE A LINGERING RISK OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE SE EARLY SUNDAY...
OTHERWISE HAVE WENT WITH POPS BELOW THRESHOLD TO MENTION IN TEXT
PRODUCTS. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND CAN SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE...WENT NEAR MAV IN
GRIDS.  /08/

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER DRY SPELL WILL COMMENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE GULF COAST AND DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE CWA. A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
ALBERTA/QUEBEC THAT WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
MOVES OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT A COOL AND DRY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND THE RAIN POTENTIAL INTO
THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEANED TOWARD GFS ENSEMBLES WHICH REAMPLIFY AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION AND GRADUALLY MOVE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS AN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW WITH A SFC LOW OVER EAST TX
FRIDAY AND TRACKS THE LOWS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS A
WET SCENARIO. THE 12Z RUN OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS CLOSES AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND DROPS IT SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA AND
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.  SO...WL CARRY POPS
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AND GO DRY FOR NOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNTIL LATER MODEL RUNS
CONVERGE AND SHED LIGHT ON THE TRUTH. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       62  79  52  80 /  60  10  10  10
MERIDIAN      61  78  50  78 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

08/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
231 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
151931-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
231 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE. AS A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR
SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60
MPH AND DOWNPOURS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE
AND WINDS ALOFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MARGINALLY STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>028-034-142300-
ASHLEY-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CHICOT-GRENADA-LEFLORE-MONTGOMERY-SUNFLOWER-
WASHINGTON-
340 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...

AT 333 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  AT THIS RATE...ONE OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CLEVELAND MISSISSIPPI AREA AROUND 6 PM.

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ASHLEY COUNTY ARKANSAS TO GRENADA
COUNTY MISSISSIPPI.  PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 50 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH THESE STORMS.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO
QUARTER SIZE ARE POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE RADIO AND
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

CRAVEN