Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 140001
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
600 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

LAC083-140030-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-050314T0030Z/
RICHLAND LA-
600 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 630 PM CST FOR 
NORTH AND CENTRAL RICHLAND PARISH...

AT 555 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES SOUTH OF RAYVILLE BY 600 PM CST
  7 MILES SOUTH OF HOLLY RIDGE BY 615 PM CST

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3251 9190 3235 9201 3231 9178 3242 9157
      3254 9147

$$

CME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

.SHORT TERM...
PREPARING FOR AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALREADY COVERS MANY
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...RIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN INTENSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. ONE WAVE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST ATOP THIS BOUNDARY HAS SPARKED SEVERE CONVECTION
NEAR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE WITH WATER VAPOR SHOWING ANOTHER
CONSOLIDATED WAVE OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO BEGIN INFLUENCING THE FRONTAL
ZONES IN WESTERN AREAS BY 2 TO 3 Z (8 TO 9 PM). IN BETWEEN THESE
DISTURBANCES EXPECT THE INITIALIZATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE. HIGH ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND DECENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GIVE STORMS THE CAPABILITY
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS A LESSER...BUT NOT
INSIGNIFICANT...RISK. THE RISK OF TORNADOES IS COMPARATIVELY LOW
GIVEN THE RATHER HIGH LCL HEIGHTS AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
SHEAR.

THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE GREATEST THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR WITH CONVECTION BASED NEAR THE SURFACE BUT
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THE AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS
QUITE CHILLY SO BY MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SERIOUS COOLING ONLY REACHING SOUTHEAST ZONES BY MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW...THE 850MB FRONT (ROUGHLY 5000FT) WILL NOT PASS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL MIDDAY AND DUE TO THIS FACT I WAS PERSUADED TO
LEAVE 20 POPS IN FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH
POPS ARE LOW THUNDER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LEVELS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THIS FRONT ALOFT
EXITS TO THE EAST. DESPITE THE EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST SOME
SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE ALTHOUGH I STILL WENT ON
THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG MID MARCH SUN.

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE MON NIGHT PERIOD EXCEPT FOR CLOUDS
AND TEMPS. TO BEGIN THE EVENING...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITION WILL
PREVAIL WITH A BIT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE
EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA AS WAA
DEVELOPS. WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE THE COOL
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.

WAA WILL TAKE OVER ON TUE AS SFC BOUNDARY SETS UP ALONG THE LA
COAST. GFS SEEMS A BIT BULLISH AND WANTS TO BRING THE SFC BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. IM NOT READY TO GO THAT FAR AND I PREFER
THE BOUNDARY STAYING ACROSS S LA. EITHER WAY...WAA WILL INCREASE
ATOP THE BOUNDARY AND SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA TUE
AFTERNOON AND OVER MOST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS DUE INDICATE
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE S CWA TUE AFTERNOON AND I WILL
MENTION THUNDER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS. ELEVATED
NATURE WILL BRING A SMALL HAIL THREAT. ALSO DURING THIS TIME...IF
CONVECTION CAN DOMINATE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH
ALL THIS SAID...I HAVE INCREASE POPS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...BEST RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE TRACE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT...THAT WILL JUST
ABOUT THE END OF RAIN CHANCES WITH FRI AFTERNOON BEING THE ONLY
MINOR EXCEPTION. TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
OVERALL...WILL KEEP TEMPS JUST BELOW CLIMO AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR AVIATION THIS EVENING
ACROSS GLH...GWO...JAN AND MEI AND THEN PERHAPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING IN HBG. BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO EXPECT IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS TO BUILD IN...FIRST THIS EVENING IN GLH AND GWO...AND THEN
LATER TONIGHT IN JAN AND MEI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       46  59  43  56 /  60  10  10  80
MERIDIAN      50  61  42  57 /  60  20  10  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

50/36

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
142212-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
412 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE  HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN RISK WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE A SECONDARY THREAT
IN MOST LOCALES. THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
LOW...BUT THEY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
FRONT WILL GIVE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THE POTENTIAL TO FORM LARGE
HAIL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LESSER
THREATS...BUT THE RISK OF THEIR OCCURRENCE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AS STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD IN THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
EVENING.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPAWN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DOES SO. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR IN MISSISSIPPI ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN THE SEVERITY OF THE  EVENING ACTIVITY...MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A NATCHEZ TO LAUREL
LINE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS
SOUTH LOUISIANA AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
LARGE HAIL.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH  NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
510 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             3 ESE RAYVILLE          32.46N 91.71W
03/13/2005  1.00 INCH        RICHLAND           LA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BRYANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
522 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             10 S STARKVILLE         33.31N 88.82W
03/13/2005  1.00 INCH        OKTIBBEHA          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR HIGHWAY 25 AND WILLIAMS
            ROAD REPORTED BY OKTIBBEHA EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER.

&&

GILMORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
527 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HAIL             4 E DELHI               32.46N 91.42W
03/13/2005  1.00 INCH        MADISON            LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL 2 MILES NE OF WAVERLY REPORTED BY
            TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GILMORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
535 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             3 WSW COLUMBUS          33.49N 88.45W
03/13/2005  0.88 INCH        LOWNDES            MS   STORM CHASER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL NEAR HIGHWAY 45 AND 82 REPORTED BY MSU
            STORM CHASER.

&&

GILMORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
540 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             1 E TALLULAH            32.41N 91.17W
03/13/2005  1.25 INCH        MADISON            LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.25 HAIL 1 MILE EAST OF TALLULAH ALONG HIGHWAY 80
            REPORTED BY TRAINED STORM SPOTTER.

&&

GILMORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
542 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E TALLULAH            32.41N 91.17W
03/13/2005  65 MPH           MADISON            LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            65 MILE AN HOUR WIND GUST ALONG HIGHWAY 80 1 MILE EAST OF
            TALLULAH REPORTED BY TRAIN SPOTTER.

&&

GILMORE