Severe Thunderstorm Warning 333, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIRMASS GRADUALLY ERODING WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO REACH THE MS RIVER
FROM THE WEST WHILE SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHIELD BRUSHING THROUGH THE
SERN CORNER OF THE CWFA. PLAN ON UPDATING THE ZONES CLOSE TO
MIDNIGHT TO REMOVE THE EVENING ZONE WORDING/ALREADY SENT UPDATE TO
HOURLY WEB GRAPHICS/GRIDS.

EVEN THOUGH VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH MID
MORNING TUESDAY...THE INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE UNTIL
DAYBREAK WHEN SOME DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. 00Z NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS A
QUICK SHOT OF 1500-2000J/KG CAPES DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-15Z SOUTH OF
A PORT GIBSON TO MERIDIAN LINE. MODELS PERSIST IN DECREASING THE
WIND SHEAR WHILE THE INSTABILITY GOES UP SO STILL EXPECT SLIGHT RISK
FOR SVR TSRA MAINLY SE OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY FROM ABOUT MID
MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  78  50  78 /  90  80  10   0
MERIDIAN      55  80  47  78 /  90  90  20   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
537 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
271037-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
537 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY. LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CROSSETT ARKANSAS...TO LEXINGTON AND MACON MISSISSIPPI.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AND CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS MORNING...REINTENSIFYING
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH MID
MORNING...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED. THIS
WILL CONFINE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO ONLY ISOLATED AREAS.
HOWEVER...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE
RESULTED IN GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN A RISK OF
LARGE HAIL IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

BY LATE THIS MORNING...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...INCREASING BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THIS LINE SHOULD REDEVELOP/REINTENSIFY DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AT THIS TIME...IT IS EXPECTED THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA AFTER MID AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ANOTHER POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND AND TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXPECTED POSITION...AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM HISTORICALLY SUPPORTS
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE HIGH AND COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO THIS WEEK FOR
LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER EVENT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN AREA WIDE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.