Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 310118
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
718 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

MSC067-310145-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-050331T0145Z/
JONES MS-
718 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 745 PM CST FOR
EASTERN JONES COUNTY...

AT 714 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF
DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE 
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OR ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM ELLISVILLE TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAUREL...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  I-59 EXIT 104 AT SANDERSVILLE AND SANDERSVILLE BY 730 PM CST

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3163 8926 3144 8905 3144 8894 3183 8893
      3182 8912

$$

CRAVEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

.SHORT TERM...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS ON TAP TONIGHT.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT (340K+ 850MB THETAE RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL GULF) LATE THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (500MB TEMPS -12 DEG G) IS YIELDING STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GREAT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 50KT IN 0-6KM LAYER...AND 0-1KM SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO >20KTS. A CAPPING INVERSION 750MB IS LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ATTM...BUT THE CONTINUED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPWARD FORCING AND AN APPROACHING
PSEUDO-DRYLINE WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION: TSTM INITIATION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NRN PORTIONS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IN NOSE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE...WHERE
THE CAP WILL ERODE MORE QUICKLY...AND THEN IT SHOULD DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED (0-6KM SHEAR  50KM)...FAIRLY GOOD
COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY AND THE RISKS FOR
LARGE HAIL/DMG WINDS/TORNADOES ARE BEING CONVEYED IN THE HWO.

ALSO OF SIGNIFICANCE IS THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON KEEPING A RESERVOIR OF
HIGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER (1.50 INCHES)
UPSTREAM FROM TSTM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE PERSISTENT AS IT CONTINUES
TO BE FED FROM THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION FROM MID MORNING UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY...RESULTING IN A RAPID INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING. GENERALLY SPEAKING...
SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE STRONG AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREAT...BUT
FORECAST DETAILS ARE NOT OF HIGH CONFIDENCE AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT. MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN I-20 AND HWY 82...AND THIS
COULD CERTAINLY ENHANCE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IF IT HAPPENS. BEST
GUESS AT THIS TIME IS THAT SOME SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THE EVENING AND SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING PROBLEMS. /EC/

.LONG TERM...FRI BULK OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE INTO AL BUT THERE WILL
STILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY AS CAA SQUEEZES
EVERYTHING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE PROBLEM WE WILL HAVE FRI WILL
BE WINDS. H925 WINDS AT H925 ARE UP TO 30KTS. WITH STRONG CAA IN
THE MID LEVELS...UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS UP TO H7 AND 6 HR SFC PRESSURE
RISES B/T 7 AND 8 MB DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS...WE WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM TRANSPORTING THESE STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. A
WIND ADV WILL POSSIBLY BE NEEDED FOR THE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DIE DOWN LATE SAT MORNING AS THE STRONG
CAA IN THE MIDLEVELS MOVES TO THE EAST.

AFTER AN ACTIVE 48HRS THE WEATHER SEEMS TO QUIET DOWN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE SATURDAY WHILE A SFC HIGH WILL DOMINATES
THE LANDSCAPE SAT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. NW WINDS IN THE LL WILL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL SAT BUT BY SUN WEST WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO WARM THINGS UP. H85 TEMPS WARM FROM 2C FRI TO
CLOSE TO 10C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING UP TO H85 MAY BE A PROBLEM
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN WINDS BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL UP TO THAT LEVEL.
SFC MOISTURE FROM RAINS THU AND INTO FRI WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN AS
WELL. I WILL USE H925 TEMPS AS A BASE FOR FORECAST HIGHS SAT AND SUN
KEEPING TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW MEX GUIDANCE AND THEN I WILL USE H85
TEMPS FOR MON HIGHS. BY MON AFTERNOON THE SFC HIGH WILL BE SITUATED
JUST OFF THE SESTRN CONUS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS IS AGREED BY ALL OF THE
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS. A STRONG S/W WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE NW
LATE TUE AND THIS WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED. /CAB/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM: EC
LONG TERM: CAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
312139-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
339 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND EAST OF A GRENADA...TO
VICKSBURG...TO NATCHEZ LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...WITH GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
STORMS. TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA COVERED BY THE MODERATE RISK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.	THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT.

AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND
THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR WILL
GIVE STORMS HERE AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO LINES AND
CLUSTERS LATE TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MAINLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS A STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SERVES AS A BOUNDARY TO
INITIATE CONVECTION DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LEVELS
OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK.

...FLOODING...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD TEND TO AFFECT INDIVIDUAL
LOCATIONS MULTIPLE TIMES...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER 2 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL MAKE FOR A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. STRONG JET
STREAM ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...WILL OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SHOULD BE HIGHER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE SHOULD BE
CLOSELY TIED TO WHERE THE WARM FRONT AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EVENTUALLY END UP FROM TONIGHTS STORMS.   THIS IS
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN ABOUT 6 HOURS IN ADVANCE.

 IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL UPON
AREAS OF ALREADY-SATURATED GROUND.  LOCAL STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.  ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
647 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL             4 E PRENTISS            31.60N 89.80W
03/30/2005  0.25 INCH        JEFFERSON DAVIS    MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA SIZED HAIL.

&&

WILSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
650 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             COLLINS                 31.64N 89.56W
03/30/2005  0.75 INCH        COVINGTON          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY HAIL.

&&

WILSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
653 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             3 SW BROOKLYN           31.02N 89.22W
03/30/2005  0.25 INCH        FORREST            MS   AIRPLANE PILOT

            PEA HAIL

&&

WILSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
654 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             3 SW BROOKLYN           31.02N 89.22W
03/30/2005  0.25 INCH        FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA HAIL

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
658 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             3 SW BROOKLYN           31.02N 89.22W
03/30/2005  1.00 INCH        FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL

&&

WILSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
702 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             MOUNT OLIVE             31.76N 89.66W
03/30/2005  0.25 INCH        COVINGTON          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PEA SIZED HAIL

&&

WILSON