Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...REMAINS OF RITA OVER CENTRAL AR WILL BE WITH
US FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS WITH PRIMARY RAIN BAND NOW SET UP ACROSS
WRN HALF OF MS AND ROTATING SLOWLY ENE. 850MB JET AXIS OF 50-60KTS
THAT CURRENTLY FEEDING THE RAIN BAND PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD AND WEAKEN
TO 40-50KTS OVER NERN MS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL SEEING DECENT
CONVECTIVE BLOWUPS ALONG THE BAND AND WILL SEE THESE ONLY INCREASE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AGAIN TODAY. 0-3KM HELICITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT
LEAST 300-350 RANGE N OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO LESS THAN 200M*M/S*S. PWATS REMAIN
ABOVE 2.25THROUGH 00Z BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING ALONG WITH THE
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FIELDS. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY ALONG AND W OF A WINONA TO BRANDON TO
BROOKHAVEN LINE AND WILL ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA. ALSO KEEPING A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE
WITH CONTINUED CELLULAR NATURE OF EMBEDDED TSRA AND RISK FOR
TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. NEW SPC WW 818 WILL BE IN EFFECT
THROUGH 18Z. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES
AT LOCATIONS W OF I-55 THAT HAVE SEEN ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES AND
LOCALLY UP TO 8 INCHES.

TONIGHT...WILL DECREASE POPS FROM W TO E WITH SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. RITA FORECAST TO SHEAR APART WITH UPPER LEVELS
MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SOME REMNANT LOWER LEVEL VORTICITY
SINKING SWD THROUGH THE CWFA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
WILL STAY CLOSE TO MAV MOS AND VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED./40/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF RITA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE GFS AND SOME OF THE OTHER MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO LIFT THE MAIN REMNANTS OF RITA GRADUALLY TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. MODELS FALLING INTO CONSENSUS THAT UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD SHIFT MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS
REDUCING RAIN CHANCES FROM THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE MOS
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL BRING IN DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH.

LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS BY TUESDAY BUT BRUNT OF 850 MB
COLD AIR DOME REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...AND
CONSIDERING MODEL TENDENCY TO COOL FIRST NIGHT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
TOO MUCH...WILL INCREASE MOS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER FROM CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 LOWS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GOING FURTHER INTO THE WORK WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE REMNANTS
OF RITA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION AS DRY WEATHER WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE MID WEST....RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OTHER MODELS
WERE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE MID WEST LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH. ALSO THIS CAUSED THE GFS TO HAVE DEWPOINTS COMING
DOWN INTO THE 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SEEMED A LITTLE TOO LOW.
SO WENT WITH THE ADJUSTED MEX WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WILL
FINALLY SEE TEMP REGIME SWITCH TO MORE AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER BY THE END
OF WEEK. WILL FOLLOW MOS TREND WITH LOWS FROM THE 50S NORTH TO 60S
SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FREQUENT
5SM -SHRA AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG RAINBANDS THAT FORM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH RITA. SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS WILL REMAIN 15-25KTS
MANY LOCATIONS UNTIL 23Z...LOOK FOR HIGHEST GUSTS OF 30-35KT THROUGH
18Z AT KGLH-KGWO./40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  73  87  67 / 100  60  20  10
MERIDIAN      83  74  87  65 / 100  80  50  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025-
     MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ040-MSZ041-
     MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ047-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ056-MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ064-
     MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025-
     MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ040-MSZ041-
     MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ047-MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ059-
     MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-
     MSZ029-MSZ032-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ048-
     MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061-
     MSZ062-MSZ063.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-
     LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-
     LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
261017-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
517 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY EAST OF A GRENADA TO
VICKSBURG TO NATCHEZ LINE. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
THE DELTA REGION. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR...DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE RISK FOR TORNADOES
WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY WHERE WIND SHEAR WILL
BE MORE FAVORABLE.
STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY FARTHER
SOUTH WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE GREATER.

EXPECT OVERALL DIMINISHING WIND FIELDS AND SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY LATER THIS EVENING TO LEAD TO WEAKENING OF STORMS BY
MIDNIGHT.

...FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA...IT IS MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 55 INCLUDING NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 4 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN.  PLENTY OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED AS RAIN BANDS FROM RITA REPEATEDLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT MAY REACH 3 TO 5
 INCHES IN SPOTS AS RAIN BANDS CONTINUE FORMING TODAY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME...ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS...MAY LEAD
TO RAPID RUN OFF AND FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WINONA TO
BRANDON TO BROOKHAVEN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN AND PONDING CAN BE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER
EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...CAUSING WATER TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THROUGH TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF RITA SPIN
DOWN AND MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO
25 MPH OVER A WIDE AREA...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
WINDS COULD GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON
AREA LAKES AND RIVERS. BOATERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS
SMALL BOATS WILL BE VULNERABLE TO CAPSIZING.

THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS
AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN TODAY.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED MONDAY THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
539 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 AM     TSTM WND GST     CLEVELAND               33.74N 90.73W
09/25/2005  65 MPH           BOLIVAR            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BOLIVAR EOC MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
            65 MPH AS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
            THROUGH. DAVIS INSTRUMENT LOCATED IN CLEVELAND.

&&

CRAVEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
757 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW WATERPROOF         31.85N 91.43W
09/25/2005                   TENSAS             LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO STRUCTURES DESTROYED ABOUT 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
            WATERPROOF ON HIGHWAY 568.

&&

WESTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
843 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 AM     TSTM WND DMG     VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
09/25/2005                   WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN THROUGHOUT
            THE CITY OF VICKSBURG.

0746 AM     TSTM WND DMG     VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
09/25/2005                   WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE MOBILE HOME DESTROYED BY A TREE FALLING ON IT ON
            TANGLEWOOD DRIVE JUST OFF OF HALLS FERRY.

&&

WESTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S BENTONIA            32.63N 90.37W
09/25/2005                   YAZOO              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOUTHBOUND LANE OF HIGHWAY 49 JUST SOUTH OF BENTONIA
            REPORTED UNDER WATER.

&&

WESTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
925 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 S ETHEL               33.08N 89.46W
09/25/2005                   ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FUNNEL CLOUD ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH OF ETHEL REPORTED BY
            EOC.

&&

WESTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
958 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLEVELAND               33.74N 90.73W
09/25/2005                   BOLIVAR            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED WITHIN THE CITY OF CLEVELAND
            REPORTED BY BOLIVAR SO.

0250 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEVELAND               33.74N 90.73W
09/25/2005                   BOLIVAR            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BOLIVAR SO REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
            THROUGHOUT THE CITY OF CLEVELAND.

0300 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SHELBY                  33.95N 90.77W
09/25/2005                   BOLIVAR            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BOLIVAR SO REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
            THROUGHOUT THE CITY OF SHELBY.

&&

WESTER