Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 060145
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
842 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

MSC077-060300-
LAWRENCE MS-
842 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR LAWRENCE
COUNTY...

AT 831 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED 
AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SILVER CREEK AREA AND PORTIONS OF 
NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
OMA...SILVER CREEK AND NEW HEBRON.

RADAR HAS INDICATED THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF LAWRENCE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3152 9024 3153 8998 3176 8998 3172 9025

$$

CME

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 060238
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
938 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

MSC077-060300-
LAWRENCE MS-
938 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR LAWRENCE
COUNTY...

AT 937 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. RADAR ESTIMATES 
ALREADY SHOWING 4 TO 5 INCHES WITH THESE STORMS LOCATED OVER EXTREME 
EASTERN RURAL LAWRENCE COUNTY.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW
HEBRON.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3153 9014 3153 8998 3176 8998 3173 9014

$$

BANNAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 KNOTS NOW JUST SE OF KLFK TX.
EXTRAPOLATION HAS THIS FEATURE NEAR KIER IN WEST CENTRAL LA AT 00Z
AND OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BETWEEN KGLH AND KJAN AT 0800Z. RUC 0-2
KM THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS HAS HANDLED THIS
PRETTY WELL...SO EXPECT CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
SEA BREEZY MORE ACTIVE TODAY AS WELL...AND OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST MS NOW APPROACHING KHBG.

WENT CLOSER TO NAM ON POPS TONIGHT THAN GFS...WHICH IS ABSURDLY LOW
WITH LESS THAN 10 POPS MOST AREAS.

MONDAY LOOKS PRETTY WET...AND RAISED POPS A BIT WITH HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 SOUTH AND UPPER
SHEAR AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA. /#11 JPC/

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)
A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUXTAPOSED
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO RUN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2
INCHES...850 MB THETA-E VALUES IN THE MID 330KS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
500 MB TEMPERATURES...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...DESPITE THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...A NORMAL RAIN CHANCE SHOULD ROUGHLY BE 30 PERCENT.
/#10/

.LONG TERM...THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE DEBATE AS TO WHETHER THE RIDGE
WEAKNESS WILL HOLD...OR IF THE UPPER-RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  MANY OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER-RIDGE WILL HOLD IN SOME
SHAPE...FASHION...OR FORM.  AS SUCH...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS FORSEEN IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

UNFORTUNATELY...IT CANT BE THAT SIMPLE.  HINTS ARE BEING THROWN BY
THE MODELS THAT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME THEN MIGRATE
NORTHWARD BY NEXT WEEKEND.  AFTER SEVERAL HEAD SCRATCHING MOMENTS
WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM (ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT AND
FORECAST MOVEMENT ISSUES)...IVE DECIDED TO LEAVE RAIN CHANCES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY.  THIS WILL JUST HAVE TO BE A WAIT-N-SEE GAME THIS FAR
OUT...AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER DEPENDING ON HOW THIS THING EVOLVES.  /#10/
&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH HAPPENED IN TERMS OF FOG LAST NIGHT...THOUGH LIFR DECK DID
SHOW UP BRIEFLY AT KHBG AND IFR DECK AT KMEI. PESKY HAZE CONTINUES AT
KGWO AND SEE NO REASON FOR IT TO GO AWAY NEXT 24 HOURS.

THUNDERSTORMS ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AROUND KHBG A GOOD BET THIS
AFTERNOON SO WENT WITH TEMPO GROUP THERE. ELSEWHERE...JUST VCTS AS
PROBABILITY PROBABLY A BIT TOO LOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IN THE NATCHEZ AREA THIS EVENING...BUT
THIS WILL NOT LIKELY AFFECT ANY TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WITH WITH MVFR
VISIBILITY AND IFR CEILINGS MOST AREAS TONIGHT FIGURING AFTERNOON
EARLY EVENING STORMS WOULD WET GROUND IN SEVERAL AREAS.

ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE TOMORROW SO LOOK FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH 00Z TAF
PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY FOR KJAN/KMEI/KHBG. /#11 JPC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  87  71  87 /  30  50  30  40
MERIDIAN      70  87  70  87 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION:  CRAVEN
LONG TERM:            BUTTS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
218 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
061918-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
218 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING OF SUNDAY JUNE 12.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.