Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 060325
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
925 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

ILC107-179-060345-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-051106T0345Z/
LOGAN-TAZEWELL-
925 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CST 
FOR LOGAN AND TAZEWELL COUNTIES...

AT 920 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH PEKIN TO HARTSBURG TO ELKHART...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF PEKIN TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF LINCOLN
TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF LINCOLN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  TREMONT.
  MORTON.
  MOUNT PULASKI.
  HOPEDALE.
  ARMINGTON.
  CHESTNUT.
  MINIER.
  MACKINAW.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. 
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR 
NO ADVANCE WARNING.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4029 8928 4028 8917 4005 8915 3993 8949
      3999 8950 3999 8959 4032 8960 4033 8971
      4045 8973 4048 8978 4062 8935 4062 8928

$$

BAK

000 
WWUS53 KILX 060347
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
947 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

ILC107-179-060357-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-051106T0345Z/
LOGAN-TAZEWELL-
947 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LOGAN AND SOUTHERN TAZEWELL
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 945 PM CST...

AT 942 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM. REMAIN 
ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SEVERE WEATHER.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4029 8928 4028 8917 4005 8915 3993 8949
      3999 8950 3999 8959 4032 8960 4033 8971
      4045 8973 4048 8978 4062 8935 4062 8928

$$

BAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
830 PM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI IS ACCELERATING AND BEGINNING TO
CATCH UP TO LINE OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN COUNTIES.
STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER EASTERN KANSAS IS ALSO APPROACHING STORM
WITH 80+ KT 300 MB JET.  AS WAVE...FRONT...AND ANTECEDENT LINE
CONVERGE OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS...SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
BRIEF TORNADOES NEAR BOUNDARIES.

WILL NOT ALTER CURRENT FORECAST WHICH EMPHASIZES SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THROUGH 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PACKAGE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
AND THEN WITH NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE MID
WEEK. MODELS SIMILAR NOW WITH THIS EVENINGS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS
QUICKLY ACRS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
SEEN WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE LATE TUESDAY AND
WED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP THREAT DEPICTED FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW...
WL TEND TO SIDE MORE WITH THE GFS AS IT HAS SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LATEST SFC ANALYIS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE OVER SE KANSAS WITH A
WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW INTO NRN MO AND AT OR JUST NORTH
OF GALESBURG AND LACON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE
STRONG WARM ADVECTION ZONE WHICH STRETCHED FROM NE OKLAHOMA INTO
CNTRL MO AND SW IL THIS MORNING. AS MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO
KS THIS AFTN...SFC PRESSURE FALLS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT FURTHER NORTH INTO NRN IL BY LATE
AFTN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHERE STORMS SHOULD FIRE LATE
THIS AFTN OR EVENING AS CAP WEAKENS AHEAD OF STRONG SPEED MAX AND
700-500 MB COLD ADVECTION. U OF I MESOSCALE MODEL SUGGESTING THAT
THE TIME FRAME FROM 22Z-01Z THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN CONVECTON ACRS THE FCST AREA. BASED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDING
AT SGF...WONDER IF THAT MAY BE TOO QUICK. ALL THE FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE WITH STRAIGHT LINE WIND
DAMAGE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IF CELLS CAN BREAK THRU THE CAP
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE...WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR NOT ONLY
LARGE HAIL...BUT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD
SWEEP THROUGH OUR FCST AREA QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND PROBABLY BE
EAST OF THE STATE BY 09Z. AFTER THAT...THE CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE
DEEPENING LOW TO OUR NORTH AND GRADIENT WINDS ACRS OUR AREA THRU
SUNDAY MORNING. WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVSY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH SYSTEM MOVING SO QUICKLY AWAY FROM OUR
AREA AND AFTR COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ANY HEADLINES.

QUIET WX RETURNS TO CNTRL IL FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
FOR ABOUT A 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD. BEST COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...AND WITH ANY WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS PUSHING AWAY FROM OUR AREA DURING THE AFTN...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
CLIMB TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...OR CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. AS HIGH
PUSHES TO OUR EAST MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING...RETURN FLOW ALREADY SETTING
UP AND CONCERN FOR WARM ADVECTION PRECIP LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW
AND MAY ADD SOME SLGT CHANCES AFTR MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY BY
TUESDAY WITH 850 TEMPS BACK TO AROUND +12C SUPPORTING AFTN HIGHS
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ENSEMBLES SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
FCST PERIOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE FCST TO DEEPEN IN TO OUR EAST...WHICH
WOULD BRING QUITE A BIT COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND. WHERE THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY
IS ACRS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IS FCST
TO CONTINUE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROF ACRS THE
ERN US...AND NOT AS MUCH COLD AIR INTRUSION INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WL
HOLD THE FORT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AND
NOT GET TOO AGRESSIVE WITH ANY COOL OFF FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT WHICH
SOME MODELS SUGGEST MAY GET HUNG UP ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT BECOMES
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES ACRS OUR
AREA EXTENDING THRU WED INTO THU. FOR NOW...WL LET A FEW MORE MODEL
RUNS IRON OUT THIS DIFFERENCE BEFORE MAKING ANY WHOLE-SALE CHANGES
IN THE DAY 5 AND 6 FORECAST.

&&

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

&&

BARKER/SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1115 AM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-061200-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-
MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-
COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-
CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1115 AM CST SAT NOV 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES SOUTHEAST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS TONIGHT...
ENDING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST BY 3 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
844 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JACKSONVILLE            39.73N 90.23W
11/05/2005                   MORGAN             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN IN THE CITY OF JACKSONVILLE.

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
859 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S BEARDSTOWN          39.95N 90.43W
11/05/2005                   CASS               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS IL ROUTE 67.

0825 PM     HAIL             ARENZVILLE              39.88N 90.37W
11/05/2005  0.75 INCH        CASS               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            IN ARENZVILLE.

&&

KELLY