Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 132347
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
647 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

ILC025-049-173-140015-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-050814T0015Z/
CLAY-EFFINGHAM-SHELBY-
647 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
CLAY...EFFINGHAM AND SOUTHERN SHELBY COUNTIES...

AT 641 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CLARKSBURG TO EFFINGHAM TO LOUISVILLE...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHELBYVILLE TO EFFINGHAM TO
8 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLORA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  SAILOR SPRINGS.
  CLAY CITY.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3932 8944 3907 8904 3864 8891 3863 8835
      3905 8840 3936 8854

$$

BARNES

000 
WWUS53 KILX 140014
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
714 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

ILC025-049-173-140024-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-050814T0015Z/
CLAY-EFFINGHAM-SHELBY-
714 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLAY...EFFINGHAM AND SOUTHERN
SHELBY COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 715 PM CDT...

AT 709 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3932 8944 3907 8904 3864 8891 3863 8835
      3905 8840 3936 8854

$$

BARNES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
252 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
36-48 HRS. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, THE NAM IS NOT INDICATING ANY
PROGRESSION OF A WAVE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS IL, WHICH IS
A CHANGE FROM EACH OF THE NAMS PREVIOUS 2 RUNS. THE GFS HAS BEEN
MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH MOVING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE GFS STILL HAS ITS ISSUES WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK, BUT OVERALL, IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE NEAR
TERM. THE CANADIAN GLOBAL IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS SOLUTION,
AND WILL TREND THAT WAY THIS FCST.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENT EXTENDS FROM NW OHIO THROUGH
CENTRAL IL TO SW MISSOURI. IT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY, AND PLENTY
OF HEATING HAS OCCURRED SOUTH OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY PARAMS
INDICATE MLCAPES OF 1500-2000, AND PLENTY OF PRECIP WATER AVAIL
FOR CONVECTION. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT, AND THE START OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IN S MISSOURI MAY BE AN
INDICATION THAT MORE WILL FIRE SOON FARTHER NE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION IN MISSOURI ARE EXPECTED TO
HEAD EAST TWRD IL. THEY MAY NOT QUITE REACH OUR CWA INTACT, BUT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OUT AHEAD. MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON RAIN IN OUR AREA HAS MOVE NE. WE EXPECT TO SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACH
ILLINOIS. THE HEATING OF THE DAY WILL HELP TRIGGER THE INITIAL WAVE
OF STORMS, THEN THE LOW SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL STORMS
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF DECATUR. SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, VARIOUS H5 SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT OUR CWA.
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES IS STILL IN QUESTION, SO
CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT ALONE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS GUID TEMPS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN UNDER-CUTTING THE TEMPS LATELY, AND WENT A FEW
DEG ABOVE IN MOST CASES THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS
DRY, WED AND THURSDAY, UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. GFS80 AND CANADIAN GLOBAL INDICATE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
HERE, AND I INTRODUCED SOME POPS IN OUR N ZONES THUR NIGHT AND THE
ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. THIS FRONT WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO COME IN SOONER, SO TIMING MAY SLOW DOWN WITH
FUTURE MODEL RUNS, BUT FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE THE TREND TWRD RAIN
IN THAT TIME PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM SOMEWHAT, DUE TO
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE, AS WELL AS RETURN FLOW WED AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY. GUID NUMBERS A LITTLE TOO COOL HERE AS WELL, BUT I STILL
DID NOT STRAY FAR.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

SHIMON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1149 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-141100-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-
MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-
COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-
CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1149 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT AND BRING PERIODIC CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

BARNES