Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 120026
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
725 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

ILC113-120045-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-050812T0045Z/
MCLEAN-
725 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL MCLEAN COUNTY...

AT 724 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PLEASANT HILL...OR
ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF HIGH WINDS WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF 
LE ROY...ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING 
WINDS...IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING...BUT STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4053 8902 4042 8888 4058 8857 4073 8861
      4075 8886

$$

CHURCHILL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
323 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE TRYING TO PINPOINT PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS WHILE
THE STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS C IL. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME AGREEING ON SUBTLE SURFACE FEATURES ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
POSSIBLY EVEN CYCLOGENESIS. THEY ALL EVENTUALLY LIFT A TROUGH THROUGH
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE NAM IS DEEPER AND FASTER
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN, AND ENSEMBLE MEAN. GFS HAS ITS
OWN ISSUES WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ALONG WITH THE NAM. WILL TRY TO
GO WITH A BLEND FOR THIS RUN, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN ANY
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE, NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED WITH
THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL
PERSISTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF OUR CWA. IT WILL
BE OUR BEST CHANCE AT A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. CURRENTLY, MOST
OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
WE HAD AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BLAST SOUTH ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR CWA
FROM THE CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT
PLAY A FACTOR TONIGHT. I WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH AND LOWER POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER, AS PREV FORECAST.
THIS SEEMS THE BEST SCENARIO GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS OF LATE.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP IS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
SHORTWAVE IN OUR NEAR FUTURE. THE NONDESCRIPT PRESSURE PATTERN IS
TOUGH TO LOCALIZE ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HEAT OF THE DAY AND
CONVECTIVE TEMP SEEMS AS GOOD AS ANY TRIGGER AT THIS POINT.
THEREFORE, 30 AND 40 POPS SEEM THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE PERCENT OF
COVERAGE.

THE BASIC TREND OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE, REMAINING IN OUR NW
ZONES TONIGHT...DROPPING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY, AS A PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS TO THE NE OF ILLINOIS...THEN
REMAINING STATIONARY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY. WITHOUT A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS THROUGH ALL OF THIS,
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE SCATTERED IN THE UNSTABLE AND MOIST
CONDITIONS. THERE LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE CAP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM,
BUT THE TRIGGERS ARE NOT STRONG.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH THURSDAY.
THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND BE A FOCUS FOR LIFT.
HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAY BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH THOUGH OUR CWA AS A WARM FRONT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, APPEAR TO
AID IN PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST
SMALL PRECIP CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY, AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THEN. I KEPT WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY DRY
FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPS WILL BE HOT AND HUMID AGAIN FRIDAY, BUT THEN THE BOUNDARY
DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND TO THE DIP IN THE H85 TEMPS. STILL
MID 80S LIKELY IN MUCH OF THE AREA, AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

SHIMON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1204 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>053-121100-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-
MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-
1204 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THE STORMS...THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG IT. THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIODIC RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST OF ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY AFTER 6 PM.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-121100-
MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1204 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG IT. THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIODIC RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST OF ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
541 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             DANVILLE                40.14N 87.62W
08/11/2005  1.00 INCH        VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            1 INCH HAIL REPORTED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF DANVILLE. 3/4
            INCH HAIL ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE AND IN DOWNTOWN. FROM
            COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&

GOETSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
647 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DANVILLE                40.14N 87.62W
08/11/2005                   VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER SURVEYED MINOR WIND DAMAGE. 4 BY
            8 SHEETS OF INSTALLATION BLOWN OFF BUILDING UNDER
            CONSTRUCTION. ALSO 1 TREE UPROOTED. FROM COUNTY ESDA.

&&

GOETSCH