Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 102159
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
459 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

ILC033-102230-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-050810T2230Z/
CRAWFORD-
459 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY...

AT 453 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROBINSON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  FLAT ROCK.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTDOORS IN THIS STORM...MOVE TO A STRONG BUILDING
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS COMMON IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AVOID TALL OBJECTS AND METAL STRUCTURES.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3903 8758 3902 8772 3886 8772 3886 8755
      3893 8753 3898 8757

$$

BARKER

000 
WWUS53 KILX 102210
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
511 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

ILC033-102221-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-050810T2230Z/
CRAWFORD-
511 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 510 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED...THUS
THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3903 8758 3902 8772 3886 8772 3886 8755
      3893 8753 3898 8757

$$

BARKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
215 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PATTERN TAKING ON SOME CHANGES OVER THE SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACRS THE
CENTRAL U.S. PUTTING THE LOWER LAKES ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD BRING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER LAKES. BIG QUESTION IS
OUR WE AGAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO FEEL THE EFFECTS. MODEL-WISE...FEEL
THE NAM LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH ITS FRONTAL POSITIONS AND QPF
FIELDS...WHEREAS THE GFS FEEDBACK PROBLEMS LEAD TO STRONGER SFC
WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS CNTRL IL...WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO A
FURTHER SOUTH POSITION IN THE FRONT ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING
SHIFTS AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

WITH THIS IN MIND...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NW INDIANA TO JUST SOUTH OF BMI AND PIA TO
NEAR QUINCY. NOT A REAL BIG CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OR DEW POINT
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AS BOUNDARY
BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CLEAR CASE OF
THE MESOSCALE DRIVING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AS EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG
FRONT WAS HELPING TO INCH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTHEAST AS THE MAIN
3 HOURLY PRES RISES REMAINED WELL TO OUR NORTH. CONVECTION CHANCES
SEEM HIGHEST (30 POPS) MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 72 EARLY TNT WITH
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES HOLDING ACRS THE NORTH.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY FCST TO PUSH ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
ON THURSDAY WILL HELP PUSH THE STALLED BNDRY NORTH ACRS CNTRL AND NRN
ILLINOIS. MCS ACTIVITY EXPECT TO DEVELOP ACRS THE MO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
12Z THU. ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ ALONG WITH THE BEST 850 MB THETA-E
ADV SUGGESTS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
LATE TNT INTO THU MORNING WITH LOW POP CHANCES HANGING ON
THURSDAY...ESP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MODELS SHOWING
LOW LVL FORCING (I.E. ORIENTATION OF LLJ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THETA-E
ADV AT 850 MB) MOST PROMINENT ACRS OUR NRN AREAS LATER THUR EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE LOCATED IN THIS REGION
WITH SILENT 20S LOOKING REASONABLE FURTHER SOUTH. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTH AGAIN DURING THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FCST TO
TRACK ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES GOING...ESP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA.
CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST (30 POPS) FRIDAY NIGHT THRU
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE INDUCES SVL FRONTAL WAVES TO PROGRESS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BNDRY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENSEMBLES NOT SHOWING TOO MUCH OF A SPREAD THRU 120 HOURS WITH THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE FLATTER LOOKING
RIDGE ACRS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. HARD TO TIME THE
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AND ANY
AFFECT THEY WILL HAVE ON FRONTAL POSITIONS AND RESULTANT PRECIP
CHANCES IN OUR AREA. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE UK AND
ECMWF MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE TROF ACRS THE
ROCKIES AND RIDGING OVER THE SERN US. THE UK IS MORE AMPLIFIED WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES THE PATTERN (FLATTER SOLUTION) WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL
ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
ISSUED BY NWS CHICAGO
1100 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-111100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-FULTON-KNOX-
LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-
PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...CHAMPAIGN...DANVILLE...
DECATUR...GALESBURG...HAVANA...JACKSONVILLE...LINCOLN...MATTOON...
PEORIA...SHELBYVILLE...SPRINGFIELD AND TAYLORVILLE
1100 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
THEN...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT
AND MAY IMPACT THE REGION TOWARD MORNING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG IT. THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIODIC RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-111100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EFFINGHAM...FLORA AND LAWRENCEVILLE
1100 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING..AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG IT. THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING A PERIODIC RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.