Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
SVR TSTMS ONGOING ACRS FCST AREA ATTM.  TSTMS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE
INTO SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR LANCASTER SE INTO NRN KY.  APPEARS
GREATEST INSTABILITY RESIDES IN SOUTH CNTRL OH AND NE KY...WHERE
CURRENT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO L90S AND RUC INDCG SBCAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG.  TSTMS HAVE HAD A BIT MORE TROUBLE GETTING GOING
NORTH OF I-70...AND APPEARS THAT SOME MID LVL SUBSIDENCE MAY BE
THE CULPRIT. SVR TS WATCH #480 CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z FOR
ENTIRE FCST AREA.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS WESTERN INDIANA.  BNDRY WILL
SHIFT EAST ACRS FCST AREA BTWN 22Z AND 03Z.  WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN
TSTM CHANCES UNTIL FROPA...ALTHOUGH MOST EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER NEXT TWO HOURS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-71.  MAY
BE ABLE TO DROP GOOD PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FCST UNTIL RIGHT AT 20Z.  PCPN
SHOULD BE OUT OF FCST AREA BY LATE EVNG AS FRNTL BNDRY SHIFTS EAST
OF REGION.  NICE DRY PUNCH INTO FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT...AND WILL
GO PTLY CLDY FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPR LO WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL GRT LKS ON WED...AND WILL BE A MAIN
FACTOR IN WX FOR REGION THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM.  MID LVL
S/WV WILL DROP AROUND BASE OF UPR TROF INTO NRN OH WED AFTN.  THIS
COMBINED WITH MODEST 850 CAA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS
BY AFTN AND THE CHANCE FOR SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP.  BEST SHOT AT
PCPN WILL BE ACRS NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDCG 30 POPS IN THESE
LOCATIONS.  LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH...WITH RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  12Z NAM INDCG 500-
1000 J/KG SBCAPES...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF TSTMS.  PCPN WILL
END DURING EVNG HOURS AS MID LVL VORT AND SFC TROF SHIFT EAST OF
REGION.  UPR LO BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST ON THURS WITH
ANOTHER S/WV SHIFTING ACRS NRN OHIO THURS AFTN.  LESS MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH ON THURS...AND SHOULD SEE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PCPN.
INCLUDED LO CHC POPS GENERALLY ACRS NRN/ERN PORTIONS FCST AREA FOR
THURS AFTN. WDLY SCT -SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS CNTRL OH
THURS NIGHT AS UPR LO DROPS INTO NRN PA.

TEMPS...A CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS AFT EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABV NORM
TEMPS.  FOLLOWED MAV GUID CLOSELY THRU SHORT TERM.  HIGHS IN U70S
TO AROUND 80 ON WED WILL DROP BACK INTO L/M70S FOR THURS AS COLD
POOL ASSOCD WITH UPR LO SHIFTS SOUTH FROM GRT LKS.  LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S.

RYAN

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
EXTENDED MODELS NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING UPR LO
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRI NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW HI PRES TO
BEGIN BUILDING INTO OH VLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.  MAINTAINED A
20 POP ACRS NE FCST AREA FRI MRNG...THEN SHOULD SEE DRY WX AS UPR
LO PULLS AWAY FROM REGION.  DRY WX EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF
EXTENDED WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO
GRT LKS AND OH VLY.  MODELS DIFFERING A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF DVLPG
UPR LO ACRS SE CONUS...THEN RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO LWR
MISSISSIPPI VLY THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK. CNTRL PLAINS RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO OH VLY NORTH OF UPR LO MON- TUES...WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDCG
500 MB HEIGHTS ABV 5900M.  IF THIS SHOULD VERIFY...IT WOULD MEAN A
RETURN TO ABV NORM TEMPS BY NEXT WEEK. HAVE THUS WARMED MAX TEMPS
FOR MON-TUES INTO M80S.

RYAN

&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
CONVECTION CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS TAF SITES.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
THIS TIME.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
533 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-150932-
ADAMS OH-AUGLAIZE OH-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLERMONT OH-CLINTON OH-
DARKE OH-DEARBORN IN-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FAYETTE IN-
FRANKLIN OH-FRANKLIN IN-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-
HARDIN OH-HIGHLAND OH-HOCKING OH-KENTON KY-LEWIS KY-LICKING OH-
LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MASON KY-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
OHIO IN-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-RIPLEY IN-
ROBERTSON KY-ROSS OH-SCIOTO OH-SHELBY OH-SWITZERLAND IN-UNION OH-
UNION IN-WARREN OH-WAYNE IN-
533 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING, ALONG WITH A MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO AND ORGANIZE RAPIDLY INTO A LINE.
THESE STORMS WILL SWEEP QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE BEST
TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER BETWEEN 1 PM EDT AND 8 PM EDT.

A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS LIKELY, ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR
HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
227 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     HAIL             4 S VERSAILLES          39.01N 85.26W
06/14/2005  1.00 INCH        RIPLEY             IN   PUBLIC

            REPORT RECEIVED FROM COUNTY WARNING POINT. TREES AND
            WIRES DOWN ON CAVE HILL ROAD AND CR 1025 SOUTH.

&&

JF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
326 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALEXANDRIA              38.96N 84.38W
06/14/2005                   CAMPBELL           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN FROM ALEXANDRIA NORTHWARD TO THE OHIO RIVER.
            EVENT LASTED THROUGH 240 PM.

&&

JF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PEEBLES                 38.95N 83.41W
06/14/2005                   ADAMS              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S LOGAN               39.48N 82.40W
06/14/2005                   HOCKING            OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCATTERED TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. ROUTE 328. ROUTE
            56 AT NARROWS ROAD.

&&

JF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S HILLSBORO           39.17N 83.61W
06/14/2005                   HIGHLAND           OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCATTERED TREES DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF COUNTY.
            EVENT LASTED FROM 3 PM TO 340 PM.

&&

JF