Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Wilmington, OH

000 
WWUS51 KILN 072330
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
730 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

OHC149-072338-
/O.EXP.KILN.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-050607T2330Z/
SHELBY OH-
730 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SHELBY COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED AT 730 PM EDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY 
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS WHICH WILL
TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS SHELBY COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 4038 8429 4019 8416 4035 8397 4049 8406

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
251 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH H5
RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.  THERE WAS SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME THIN CI AS WELL.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ISOLATED IN THE FAR SOUTH...WITH A MORE CONTIGUOUS AREA SOUTH
OF KLEX...WITH VERY SLOW MOVEMENT AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS ALOFT.  TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S.

ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MODERATE INSTABILITY PROGGED IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS AND NAM...WITH MUCH LESS CIN IN THE FAR
SOUTH.  ALSO...THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE FORCING THAN TODAY AS THERE
ARE SOME H5 VORT LOBES PASSING ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE GFS
AND NAM DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION.  THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH ANOTHER AREA OVER FAR EASTERN KY AND WEST VA.  STILL...IT
SEEMS THAT THE PROBABILITY OF PCPN WILL BE HIGHER THAN TODAY.
ALSO...EVEN THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST....MAV AND MET POPS APPEAR TOO
HIGH AND SCATTERED AERIAL COVERAGE APPEARS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME
FOR ALL ZONES...DROPPING OFF IN THE EVENING.  LOOKING AT ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHERN KY TODAY...A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH...COULD GET CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN WITH SLOW MOVING
CELLS.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THURSDAY...THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BERMUDA
HIGH WILL SHIELD THE REGION FROM MAJOR SYSTEMS, BUT A MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST. LACK OF STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE POINTS TO A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME CONVECTION AND
NIGHTTIME DISSIPATION. THEREFORE, WENT WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN MAY INCREASE ON
THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.

PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL ALLOW CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY THIN CI STREAMING IN ON NW FLOW.
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH SEEMS TO BE INHIBITED BY THE CAP IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF FCST AREA AND THIS CAP MAY WEAKEN OVER KY LATE TODAY
AND MORESO OVERNIGHT AS CONVERGENCE IS APPARENT AND THERE IS A
LITTLE LIFT WITH ASSOC WEAK VORTS MOVING THROUGH FCST AREA FROM S TO
N. NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE AN AREA OF PRECIP COVERING THE SRN AND ERN
1/3 OF CWA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. BELIEVE THAT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AND LLVL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT
CONVECTION SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT IN THE S AND EARLY TOMORROW IN THE
S AND E. PROBLEM HERE IS THAT THE VORTS WILL NOT BE EASILY TRACKED
AND IM CERTAIN THAT THE MODELS ARENT SHOWING A PERFECT PROG.

RESOLVED THIS BY PLACING TEMPO THUNDER AT KILN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
TOMORROW MORNING AND DROPPED VSBYS HERE TO A MILE. ANY PARTICULAR
AREA THAT GETS A THUNDERSTORM TOMORROW WILL BE UNDER HEAVY RAIN AS
THE FLOW IS ALMOST NONEXISTENT AND ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
NEARLY STATIONERY. A LONGER PERIOD OF JUST PROB 30 SEEMED PRUDENT AT
KCVG/KLUK...JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AT KDAY. CONVECTION MAY NOT REACH AS
FAR N AS THE NAM IS PUTTING IT...BUT IT ALSO SEEMED PRUDENT TO PLACE
A PROB30 AT KCMH/KLCK WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

DRY AIR MIXED DOWN FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL HAMPER ANY STORMS LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

FRANKS

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
521 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-080920-
ADAMS OH-AUGLAIZE OH-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLERMONT OH-CLINTON OH-
DARKE OH-DEARBORN IN-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FAYETTE IN-
FRANKLIN OH-FRANKLIN IN-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-
HARDIN OH-HIGHLAND OH-HOCKING OH-KENTON KY-LEWIS KY-LICKING OH-
LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MASON KY-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
OHIO IN-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-RIPLEY IN-
ROBERTSON KY-ROSS OH-SCIOTO OH-SHELBY OH-SWITZERLAND IN-UNION OH-
UNION IN-WARREN OH-WAYNE IN-
521 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  TEMPERATURES AROUND 90
DEGREES COMBINED WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALLOW THE HEAT
INDEX TO CLIMB TO NEAR 95.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OHIO AND INDIANA.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE FOR PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A WARM HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RYAN