Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Wilmington, OH

000 
WWUS51 KILN 232137
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
536 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2005

OHC045-232145-
/O.CAN.KILN.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-050523T2145Z/
FAIRFIELD OH-
536 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED INTO PERRY COUNTY AND WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

TO REPORT PREVIOUS HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN WILMINGTON.

LAT...LON 3984 8249 3969 8262 3956 8232 3971 8220

$$

RYAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
330 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
STRONG S/WV AND ASSOCD MID LVL VORT DROPPING INTO NW OHIO ON BACK
SIDE OF UPR LO CENTERED IN WESTERN NY.  AFTER A SUNNY
START...DIURNAL CU HAS QUICKLY DVLPD ACRS NRN FCST AREA AND IS
BEGINNING TO FILL IN FURTHER SOUTH.  SHRA/TSRA HAVE DVLPD IN LAST
THREE HOURS NRN AND ERN OH UNDER STEEPEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES.
PCPN CURRENTLY AFFECTING NE PORTIONS OF FCST AREA IN CNTRL OH.

S/WV WILL DROP ACRS REGION THRU ERLY EVNG...WITH CONTINUED SCT
SHRA/TSRA ACRS NE 1/2 FCST AREA.  HIGHEST POPS LOCATED IN CNTRL OH
QUICKLY DROPPING OFF TO SOUTH AND WEST.  MAY VERY WELL SO NO PCPN
DVLP SOUTH AND WEST OF A RICHMOND-WILMINGTON-MAYSVILLE LINE.
WBZEROS BTWN 6-7KFT THIS AFTN INDCG POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.  GUSTY WINDS BEING AIDED BY 850 LLJ WILL
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFT DARK.  COMBINATION OF S/WV DROPPING SOUTH
OF OHIO RIVER AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW PCPN TO END
ACRS EASTERN FCST AREA DURING EVNG HOURS.  APPEARS MAY HAVE SVRL
HOURS OF PTLY CLDY SKIES DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THEN WILL SEE SC
INCREASE TOWARDS DAWN AS ANOTHER MID LVL VORT DROPS SOUTH INTO
EASTERN OHIO AROUND BASE OF UPR LO.  WILL ALSO BRING CHC POPS BACK
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA TOWARDS 12Z WITH VORT APPCHG.

CORE OF COLD POOL WILL BE OVER TOP OF REGION ON TUES AS UPR LO
SWINGS SOUTH ACRS WESTERN PA.  MID LVL VORT WILL TRACK TRHU
EASTERN FCST AREA THRU 18Z...AND EXPECT SOME -SHRA TO DVLP.  DEEP
BNDRY LYR MOISTURE WITH MSTLY CLDY SKIES EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF
FCST AREA THRU THE DAY.  CLOUDS WILL HOLD INTO TUES NIGHT AS SFC
HI PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM NORTH AND WEST.  MAY SEE SOME
CLEARING IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TUES NIGHT.

TEMPS...WENT JUST BELOW GUID TEMPS OVERNIGHT...THEN NEAR MAV GUID
FOR TUES.  MET GUID LOOKS A LITTLE TOO COLD...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW MUCH WARMER TEMPS WERE OVER GUID TODAY.  NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR LOCATIONS IN CNTRL/WEST CNTRL OH TO STRUGGLE
TO GET TO 60 DEG ON TUES.  SO COOL WX CONTINUES...AVG TEMPS AT
KCVG/KCMH/KDAY RUNNING ROUGHLY 4-5 DEG BLO NORM SO FAR FOR MAY.

RYAN

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH H5 RIDGE NOTED
TO THE WEST AND DOWNWARD MOTION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS
RIDGE AND ASSOC BUILDUP OF MOISTURE ON THE WEST EDGE IS IN WRN FCST
AREA AOA 6Z THU AND PUSHES THROUGH QUICKLY AS A DEEPENING LOW BUILDS
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH AN AMPLIFYING S/W SWINGING SOUTH OF IT AND
HELPING PUSH THE RIDGE EAST. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE WED NIGHT
TIME FRAME AND EARLY THURS AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE S/W
SHOULD BE THROUGH BY 18Z. LOOKING LOWER...GFS IS SHOWING THAT THE
SFC FRONT DOESNT GO THROUGH UNTIL ABOUT 0Z...AND THE 6Z RUN THAT
IM CURRENTLY LOOKING AT IS A BIT QUICKER FROM OTHER MODELS AND
PREVIOUS FCST RUN. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY PERIOD WITH THUNDER
MENTIONED AS THE REST OF THE FCST POPS WILL BE TAILORED TOWARDS THE
COLD POOL SET UP OVER THE ERN GTLKS REGION WITH A DIURNAL TREND. NOT
TO SAY THAT THUNDER COULDNT HAPPEN...WILL WAIT UNTIL IT GETS TO A
CLOSER TIME FRAME AND TRY TO SEE WHERE VORTS WILL BE AS THEY SWING
AROUND H5 LOW TO THE NE.

DO NOT EXPECT TO MESS AROUND WITH TEMPS EITHER. PREVIOUS FCST WAS
ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD AND THIS SEEMS
ENTIRELY REASONABLE. MAY BUMP UP READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SFC
RIDGING IS FCST ALONG WITH A DRYING TREND ON SUN AND PARTICULARLY
MON. SUNSHINE HERE WOULD WARM THINGS UP TO A COMFORTABLE NEAR NORMAL
TEMP.

WED AND THURS ALREADY HAS US COLDER THAN SURROUNDING FOS AND IM
NOT GOING TO RAISE TEMPS. SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING WED NIGHT AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE WEST WILL NOT WORK
IN TO STEM THE DROP IN TEMPS. GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS WITH
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS THROUGH DAY 7...STILL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FRANKS

&&

(ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2005)

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR OR
SO ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF FA WHILE CU HAS FILLED IN
ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH S/W ENERGY PIVOTING DOWN ACROSS
REGION...EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WILL ALLOW FOR A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS AT KCMH AND KLCK
BUT TRY TO LEAVE REMAINING TAF SITES DRY AS THINK BEST ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN TO THEIR NORTHEAST. WITH ACTIVITY LARGELY DIURNAL...EXPECT CU
AND ANY PCPN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATING A SECONDARY S/W PIVOTING DOWN ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REMAINS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
SO WILL KEEP TAFS DRY. HOWEVER...WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN INTO AREA...WILL BRING SOME LOW VFR TO MVFR
CLOUDS BACK IN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
451 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2005

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-240850-
ADAMS OH-AUGLAIZE OH-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLERMONT OH-CLINTON OH-
DARKE OH-DEARBORN IN-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FAYETTE IN-
FRANKLIN OH-FRANKLIN IN-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-
HARDIN OH-HIGHLAND OH-HOCKING OH-KENTON KY-LEWIS KY-LICKING OH-
LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MASON KY-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
OHIO IN-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-RIPLEY IN-
ROBERTSON KY-ROSS OH-SCIOTO OH-SHELBY OH-SWITZERLAND IN-UNION OH-
UNION IN-WARREN OH-WAYNE IN-
451 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.