Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
435 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
CONVECTION CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WATCH FOR
ALL COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT RATHER EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.

NAM HAS SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION.
BUT STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END IN THE EVENING.

CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION. SO HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH THE NW FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

FOR TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE FCST AREA.
THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS.

ON THURSDAY....THE GFS HAS A TRAILING SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FCST AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 146 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005)

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...

WRMFNT APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE FA.   EXPECT CU TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF FNT AS TD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTN. S/W OVER
SN IN IS LIFTING NE. TSRA IS ALREADY ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT CONVECTION WOULD STAY WEST OF TAFS.  MODELS ARE
INDICATING UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE 1500 TO 2000
J/KG...LI -5...BUT THERE IS SOME SMALL CIN AS WELL. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF CONVECTION IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF TAF...WILL LEAVE
PCPN OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.  COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO OHIO VALLEY AFT
06Z.  PREFRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 06Z AFFECTING
MAINLY WESTERN TAFS.  FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN EDGE OF FA BY
12Z...BUT IS HELD UP AS IT WAITS FOR H5 S/W THAT SWINGS THROUGH AFT
15Z.

SITES

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-140820-
ADAMS OH-AUGLAIZE OH-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLERMONT OH-CLINTON OH-
DARKE OH-DEARBORN IN-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FAYETTE IN-
FRANKLIN OH-FRANKLIN IN-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-
HARDIN OH-HIGHLAND OH-HOCKING OH-KENTON KY-LEWIS KY-LICKING OH-
LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MASON KY-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
OHIO IN-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-RIPLEY IN-
ROBERTSON KY-ROSS OH-SCIOTO OH-SHELBY OH-SWITZERLAND IN-UNION OH-
UNION IN-WARREN OH-WAYNE IN-
420 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY ALSO EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY.