Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
235 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS INDIANA AND SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH OUR FA THROUGH REMAINDER OF MORNING. WITH 40 TO 50 KNOT
WINDS AT 850 MB...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH STORMS.
WILL ALSO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FA FOR
TODAY AS GRADIENT WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CAA BEHIND FRONT. DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND FRONT SO WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT. NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATING DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY SO WILL GO
WITH A LOW CHANCE POP FOR NOW. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT A LITTLE BIT
OF INSTABILITY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2005

AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS TRAILING
FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. RADAR SHOWS LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EDGING INTO
EASTERN ILLINOIS. HAVE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TIMING OF LINE..WITH LINE
REACHING WESTERN SITES AROUND 11Z AND EASTERN SITES AROUND 13Z.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR EXPECT ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...WINDS WILL DECREASE
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
RLG

(ISSUED 253 PM EST SAT NOV 5 2005)

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
00Z MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...THEN DIVEREGE
BY DAY 7.  FCST STARTS WITH WRMFNT JUST N OR THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND
NAM ARE SHOWING QPF IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AT 12Z TUE.  LIFT WORKS
NORTH DURING THE DAY...PULLING THE PCPN NORTH OF THE FA BY TUE
EVENING.

COLD FRONT THAT SWINGS THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON WED...SEEMS TO BE
SLOWING DOWN.  DELAYED FROPA AND BEST POPS UNTIL LATE WED INTO WED
NGT.

GFS THEN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN STREAM WHILE THE ECMWF
IS LESS PHASED.  FOLLOWED HPC MDER WHICH FAVORED THE NCEP ENS MEAN
PATTERN.  THUS DID NOT GO AS COLD AS GFS AND INSTEAD BUILT IN SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RATHER THAN A COLD NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE...WHICH
WOULD BRING INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TUE/WED...THEN AGAIN FRI AND SAT.

SITES

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065 UNTIL
6 PM SUNDAY.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FOR INZ050-058-059 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
322 PM EST SAT NOV 5 2005

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-062030-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-
DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
322 PM EST SAT NOV 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SEE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
RACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PARTICLUARLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 AND 45
MPH DURING THE NIGHT. PEOPLE SHOULD BRING IN OR SECURE LOOSE
OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR LAWN FURNITURE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.