Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
745 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

.AVIATION (00Z-00Z)...
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO TRACK EWD THRU GREATLAKES
TNGT/TUE. MODELS SHOWING THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY SPLIT WITH
SRN PORTION OF TROF LAGGING. COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM LOWER MI
THRU NRN ILLINOIS ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NRN PORTION OF
THIS FRONT ACRS THE GREAT LAKES TO PUSH EWD FASTER THAN SRN
PORTION. GFS SOLN WAS SHOWING THIS SOLN AND 18Z ETA ALSO DEPICTS
THIS SCENARIO WITH THE FRONT BECOMING MORE E-W THRU SRN OH ERLY
TUE. STG TO SVR STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHD OF THIS
FRONT IN THE MODERATELY UNSTBL AMS. EXPECT SOME WEAKENING OF
THESE STORMS WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT DYNAMICS STILL IMPRESSIVE.
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 300MB JET SWINGS ACROSS WITH FROPA PROVIDING
AXIS OF UPPER DIV BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. HAVE FOLLOWED TIMING CLOSE
TO 18Z ETA SOLN AND KEPT BKN MVFR LOW CLDS FOR A BRIEF PD IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY TUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS DVLPG AS SFC
HI PRESSURE BLDS IN.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 321 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO
OKLAHOMA. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.
MODELS DID NOT HANDLE EARLIER CONVECTION NEAR WARM FRONT EARLIER
TODAY...SO MODEL CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHERN CWA AROUND 06Z AND CLEAR MOST OF THE CWA AROUND
12Z. LOW LEVEL JET AND BEST FORCING MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
06Z ALSO. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUESDAY. HAVE NOT
STRAYED TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

(ISSUED 321 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005)

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SO
KEPT EARLY PART OF LONG TERM DRY. FRONT WILL REQUIRE CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WENT WITH DRY FORECAST SUNDAY WITH FRONT
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH LEAVING ILN IN THE WARM SECTOR. FRONT SAGGING
BACK SOUTH ON MONDAY CALLS FOR CHANCE POPS AGAIN.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH GENERALLY NOT QUITE AS
HIGH AS MEX GUIDANCE...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT
WE ARE NO LONGER EXPERIENCING MID SUMMER SOLAR HEATING AND BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING.

CONIGLIO

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

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