Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
340 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
ACROSS MID CWA...WTH BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING
NEAR/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING IN NW THIRD OF FA...THEN AM EXPECTING
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO DIE DOWN ONCE DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.
GIVEN SOME LINGERING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TONIGHT AS PER BOTH
RUC AND GFS...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS TONIGHT IN
THE NORTH. GFS MORE CONSISTENT WTH THE BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITATION...BUT STILL EXPERIENCING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
TONIGHT...AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED ON FRIDAY...WTH LOWER 90S TO
NEAR MID 90S EXPECTED. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHERN
FA...CLOSER TO SFC BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA REMAINS CAPPED...SO HAVE KEPT ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP
CHANCES SOUTH TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER.  FOR FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...SFC FNT TAKES ITS TIME DRAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE FA. AM
KEEPING SOMEWHAT LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN MAV AND ESPECIALLY
ETA NUMBERS...SO STICKING TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MOVE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL
ZONES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 130 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2005)

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
INDIANA. EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION SO HAVE INCLUDED A
VCTS FOR KCVG AND KLUK THROUGH 00Z. LEFT REMAINING TAF SITES DRY
ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON PCPN MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT MAY BRUSH NORTHERN TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE FOR BR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR
VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
515 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2005

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-120911-
ADAMS OH-AUGLAIZE OH-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLERMONT OH-CLINTON OH-
DARKE OH-DEARBORN IN-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FAYETTE IN-
FRANKLIN OH-FRANKLIN IN-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-
HARDIN OH-HIGHLAND OH-HOCKING OH-KENTON KY-LEWIS KY-LICKING OH-
LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MASON KY-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
OHIO IN-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-RIPLEY IN-
ROBERTSON KY-ROSS OH-SCIOTO OH-SHELBY OH-SWITZERLAND IN-UNION OH-
UNION IN-WARREN OH-WAYNE IN-
515 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. EACH DAY
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.