Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
450 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
FORECAST AREA IN A LULL AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT PREVIOUSLY
DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL OHIO HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST OHIO INTO EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EXPECT STORMS TO WORK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

FRONT WILL START RETURNING NORTHWARDS AND APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS BOUNDARY APPROACHES PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN
ZONES. EXPECT AN EARLY LOW THAT NIGHT WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE. BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ALOFT AN UPPER TROF WILL BE APPROACHING AS RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST COAST.  THIS TROF WILL BE WITH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...WHEN
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW.  THE BEST THREAT
OF PRECIP WILL COME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  THE NEXT THREAT OF
RAIN WILL COME TOWARDS MID WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.  ONCE HIGH BUILDS IN THEN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL OR A
BIT BELOW.

TIPTON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 154 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2005)

AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
CONVECTION HAS FIRED SOUTH OF COLD FRONT...WHICH RUNS FROM
NR KCLE-KAOH-KLAF.  DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND SLIDE SOUTH WITH COLD FRONT.

EXPECT INITIAL SHOT OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF KCMH AND KLCK TO
STAY NORTH OF THEM.  KEPT TIMING OF PREVIOUS TAFS FOR THE START OF
PCPN...WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 21Z IN KDAY AND KCMH FOR SCT TSRA AND
AROUND 01Z FOR FROPA.  MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE TSRA COULD BE
POST FRONTAL FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
SHRA.

H9 MOISTURE INCREASES OVER 90 PERCENT AFTER 06Z...SO KEPT THE MVFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION FOR 12Z-18Z PERIOD...WHICH IS BKN MVFR
CLDS...COMPARED TO THE NAM FORECAST OF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA.

SITES

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
450 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2005

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-120849-
ADAMS OH-AUGLAIZE OH-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLERMONT OH-CLINTON OH-
DARKE OH-DEARBORN IN-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FAYETTE IN-
FRANKLIN OH-FRANKLIN IN-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-
HARDIN OH-HIGHLAND OH-HOCKING OH-KENTON KY-LEWIS KY-LICKING OH-
LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MASON KY-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
OHIO IN-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-RIPLEY IN-
ROBERTSON KY-ROSS OH-SCIOTO OH-SHELBY OH-SWITZERLAND IN-UNION OH-
UNION IN-WARREN OH-WAYNE IN-
450 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY IN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
THEREFORE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE REGION IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.