Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Wilmington, OH

000 
WWUS51 KILN 202112
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
511 PM EDT WED APR 20 2005

OHC065-202115-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-050420T2115Z/
HARDIN OH-
511 PM EDT WED APR 20 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR 
HARDIN COUNTY...

AT 506 PM EDT(406 PM EST)...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF GRANT...OR ABOUT
11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF UPPER SANDUSKY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PATTERSON AND FOREST.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCHE IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED ABOUT FIVE 
MILES NORTH OF KENTON WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE 
STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING(700 PM EST WEDNESDAY EVENING) FOR OHIO.

LAT...LON 4081 8357 4068 8363 4065 8340 4074 8348
      4081 8348
$$

JTD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EDT WED APR 20 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.  CONVECTION INITIATED JUST BEFORE 18Z.  KILN
RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION FILLING IN WITH A FEW ISOLATED ELEVATED
CORES.  ESTIMATED CAPES ARE MAXING AROUND A 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF
CONVECTION.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-3 KM) IS ABOUT 20 M2/S2 WHICH IS
DESCENT.  THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT IS BACK OVER ILLINOIS WITH THE AN
UPPER WAVE.  THIS ALL BEING SAID THINK WE WILL SEE A FEW SEVERE
THUNDESTORMS THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER THE BEST COVERAGE WILL COME
WITH UPPER WAVE OVERNIGHT NIGHT...AFTER WE HAVE LOST THE BULK OF
OUR INSTABILITY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT
WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY BEFORE PULLING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY.  THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING A RELATIVELY
SOLID BAND OF RW/TRW THROUGH IN THE MORNING.  THIS IS WHEN THE
FORECAST GETS REAL INTERESTING.  THE POLAR JET DIVES SOUTH INTO
OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...CREATING A DEEP
SURFACE LOW.  AS A RESULT A DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT WE
WILL ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO RECOVER IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE
INSTABILTY TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR.  STAY TUNED.

WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAV FOR TEMPS.

TIPTON

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
PATTERN EVOLVING INTO A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LOW WILL BRING
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR INTO CWA. TREND HAS BEEN TO LOWER
TEMPS AND HAVE DONE SO WITH THIS FCST. COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. WILL INTRODUCE WITH SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING BY SUN MORN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR MON-WED ALTHOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL OCCUR.  TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY OR A
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

PADGETT

&&
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
RADAR IMAGES SHOWING SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. EXPECT TO SEE THIS CONTINUE TO FILL IN TO
THE EAST AND SAG SLOWLY SOUTH AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
ONGOING TAFS AS THEY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE ON TIMING OF EXPECTED ONSET
OF PCPN. HAVE CARRIED CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS/VCTS INTO THIS EVENING
BUT AS AIRMASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE THROUGH 06Z...PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION OVER TO MAINLY RAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY SO HAVE MAINTAINED IFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN THROUGH LATE MORNING...SHOULD SEE CIGS SLOWLY
IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 PM EDT WED APR 20 2005

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-210900-
ADAMS OH-AUGLAIZE OH-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLERMONT OH-CLINTON OH-
DARKE OH-DEARBORN IN-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FAYETTE IN-
FRANKLIN OH-FRANKLIN IN-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-
HARDIN OH-HIGHLAND OH-HOCKING OH-KENTON KY-LEWIS KY-LICKING OH-
LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MASON KY-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
OHIO IN-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-RIPLEY IN-
ROBERTSON KY-ROSS OH-SCIOTO OH-SHELBY OH-SWITZERLAND IN-UNION OH-
UNION IN-WARREN OH-WAYNE IN-
157 PM EDT WED APR 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
...SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING. A FEW
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE ON
FRIDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OF BELOW
FREEZING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.