Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Wilmington, NC

000 
WWUS52 KILM 081405
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
905 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

SCC031-069-081415-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-050308T1415Z/
MARLBORO SC-DARLINGTON SC-
905 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 915 AM EST FOR
DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES...

AT 855 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM STATE HIGHWAY 38 AT NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA 
STATE LINE TO SOCIETY HILL TO LAMAR...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
   MCCOYS CROSSROADS BY 840 AM
   CLYDE BY 845 AM
   WALLACE BY 850 AM
   STATE HIGHWAY 38 AT NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA STATE LINE BY
   855 AM
   INTERSECTION OF STATE HIGHWAY 38 AND STATE HIGHWAY 79 BY 900 AM
   STATE HIGHWAY 34 AT DARLINGTON...MARLBORO COUNTY LINE BY 905 AM

THESE STORM HAVE PRODUCED AT 61 MPH WIND AT THE DARLINGTON AIRPORT AT
901 AM EST AND A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN IN NORTH HARTSVILLE. THIS
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS

LAT...LON 3481 7995 3466 7984 3461 7979 3453 7984
      3450 7991 3451 7999 3443 8018 3440 8024
      3438 8033 3437 8029 3432 8024 3428 8017
      3421 8011 3415 8014 3410 8007 3414 7999
      3422 7986 3426 7976 3429 7970 3432 7963
      3442 7957 3457 7948 3462 7946 3480 7969
      3481 7989

$$

HAWKINS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
433 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL ZONES TODAY. ILM ASOS RECENTLY
REPORTED 35 MPH SUSTAINED WIND WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...WILL START
WIND ADVISORY NOW. VAD WINDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRESENCE OF STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET...WITH WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FT 55 TO 60
KT.

CURRENTLY A LARGE MASS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
BRINGING THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE...GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 50
MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS MESS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT IS
LURKING. FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE CWA DOORSTEP BY 12Z WITH FRONT
MOVING TO THE COAST BY 15Z. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
LIMITS UPWARD MOVEMENT OF TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 65 TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO RAPID
DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. GRADIENT WINDS
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL RESULT
IN WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD ADVECTION DIMINISHES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE COLD. 5H THICKNESS AROUND 535 OVERNIGHT WITH -5 TO -7
850 TEMPS. BOTH EAT AND GFS MOS HAVE LOWS AT OR JUST UNDER
30...THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS THAT DROP INTO THE MID 20S.
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY RECORD LOWS WILL BE IN DANGER.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
BROAD 5H TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL ASSURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. THE FIRST WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT THIS ONE
DIVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LIMITED IMPACT ON THE CAROLINAS.

NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS NEXT STORM BEGINS
TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. FOR NOW NOT GOING AS COLD AS THICKNESS AND
850 WOULD WARRANT...BUT STILL GOING MUCH COLDER THAN MEX GUIDANCE
WHICH IS BEING STEERED BY CLIMO. KEEP CHANCE POPS FRIDAY...BUT HAVE
SHIFTED TIMING SLIGHTLY TO AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY UPPER TROF BECOMES FLATTENED AND ILL-DEFINED...COVERING MUCH
OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO BUILD
NORTH AND EAST...WITH SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE VALUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY DYNAMICAL COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU MIDDAY TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THE WAY TO GO ACROSS ALL WATERS. GFS STILL THE MODEL OF
CHOICE. VERY TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT OVERCOMING THE COOL SSTS
ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO MAKE IT TO SUSTAINED GALES THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE AID OF CAA AFTER CFP MIDDAY
TODAY. IN ADDITION...ANY CONVECTION THIS MORNING CULD ALSO BRING
DOWN 40-50 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. WASH MACHINE TYPE SEAS ALSO
EXPECTED DUE TO LOW PERIODS.

WEAK HIGH PRES TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WED. AS QUICK
AS THE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASED...THEY WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE.
UPPER S/W TROF TO PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST STATES AND THEN
ACROSS FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...WHILE TRYING TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW THU
OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. CURRENTLY MODELS KEEP THIS SYSTEM FROM
AFFECTING THE WATERS...OTHER THAN POSSIBLY BRIEFLY ENHANCING THE
WINDS WED NITE OR THU. LIGHT WINDS TO BASICALLY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT DYNAMICAL FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AGAIN...AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER TROF OCCURS. ONCE AGAIN MAIN SFC
LOW TO STAY NORTH OF THE WATERS WITH DYNAMICS CONTINUING TO BE QUITE
ENERGETIC. THIS IS REFLECTED WITH A DECENT AND TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAVING DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL BRING CONDITIONS TO SCA
THRESHOLDS FOR ALL WATERS BY LATE FRI AND CONTINUE THRU SAT.
OFFSHORES HAVE GALES AT THIS TIME BUT NOT QUITE BOUGHT ON BEST
DEEPENING PHASE FOR SFC LOW TO BRING SPEEDS TO GALES.

&&

.AVIATION...
STILL VFR ALL STATIONS FOR NOW...EXPECT STEADILY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THEN...MAINLY MVFR
WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY DURING PERIODS
OF HEAVY PRECIP IN THE EARLY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE A FACTOR THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT VFR TO
RETURN EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES.
SC...WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES.
MARINE...GALE WARNING AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

MARINE...HOEHLER
AVIATION...REK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
356 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-091105-
BLADEN-BRUNSWICK-COLUMBUS-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-GEORGETOWN-
HORRY-MARION-MARLBORO-NEW HANOVER-PENDER-ROBESON-WILLIAMSBURG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BENNETTSVILLE...BURGAW...CONWAY...
DARLINGTON...DILLON...ELIZABETHTOWN...FLORENCE...GEORGETOWN...
HAMPSTEAD...HARTSVILLE...KINGSTREE...LAKE CITY...LELAND...LORIS...
LUMBERTON...MARION...MULLINS...MURRELLS INLET...MYRTLE BEACH...
SHALLOTTE...SOUTHPORT...TABOR CITY...WHITEVILLE AND WILMINGTON
356 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WIND GUSTS 40 TO
45 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THE THREAT WILL END AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM TODAY.

WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. SEE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS..

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SEE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
457 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-081900-
BLADEN-BRUNSWICK-COLUMBUS-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-GEORGETOWN-
HORRY-MARION-MARLBORO-NEW HANOVER-PENDER-ROBESON-WILLIAMSBURG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BENNETTSVILLE...BURGAW...CONWAY...
DARLINGTON...DILLON...ELIZABETHTOWN...FLORENCE...GEORGETOWN...
HAMPSTEAD...HARTSVILLE...KINGSTREE...LAKE CITY...LELAND...LORIS...
LUMBERTON...MARION...MULLINS...MURRELLS INLET...MYRTLE BEACH...
SHALLOTTE...SOUTHPORT...TABOR CITY...WHITEVILLE AND WILMINGTON
457 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING TODAY...

THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING...AND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DIMINISH.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY AS A RESULT OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA
...AND NOT AS A RESULT OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE REGION TODAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING.

RESIDENTS IN THE REGION SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO ALL
HAZARDS NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO ALL HAZARDS NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ILM

HOEHLER