Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
822 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
WILL UPDATE ZONES TO ADD THE THUNDERSTORMS AS OPPOSED TO JUST
SHOWERS. CWA FOR THE MOST PART IS LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT REGION
OF THE 300 MB JET FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE MOVING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD BY SAT MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WELL AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE FOREMENTIONED ATM DYNAMICS.
WILL ALSO INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG INLAND AND WHERE THE PCPN OCCURRED
...TO PATCHY ALONG THE COAST. MINS LOOK AOK.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL HAVE TO INITIALIZE WITH A SOUTH WIND DIRECTION AS OPPOSED TO
SW. WIND TO VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO SOLID 15 KT BY
MORNING...POSSIBLY 20 KT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO MID TO UPPER ATM
DYNAMICS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT THE MOMENT...AND MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION BY SAT MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE SFC PG PRODUCING
THE 15 TO POSSIBLY 20 KT. WILL ALSO TWEAK THE SEAS UPWARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS VFR THIS EVENING. GOOD PVA APPROACHING AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT. CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING WEST
OF FLO AHEAD OF THIS. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WITH SHORT LIVED IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER PRECIPITATION
PASSES...EXPECT TERMINALS TO DEVELOP MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR WITH A
DECENT CHANCE OF TEMPO IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN FOG A FEW
HOURS AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS. TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 14Z
AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH 23/00Z WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SHORT TERM...HOEHLER
AVIATION...ROSS
MARINE...HOEHLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
900 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-220915-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-GEORGETOWN-
900 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL BUT DAMAGING WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AMZ250-252-254-256-220915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM-
900 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS.

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

STRONG COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE WARM WATERS WILL MAKE FOR
ROUGH SEAS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING
BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN AS
HURRICANE WILMA MOVES NORTHEAST...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.