Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Wilmington, NC

000 
WWUS52 KILM 282018
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
416 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

NCC019-282030-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-050728T2030Z/
BRUNSWICK NC-
416 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR
BRUNSWICK COUNTY...

AT 408 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS IN SANDY CREEK REPORTED PEA 
SIZE HAIL...AND ESTIMATED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. 

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAIN NEAR...
  SANDY CREEK AT 430 PM

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3435 7808 3432 7802 3428 7800 3427 7801
      3426 7799 3420 7796 3401 7808 3418 7817
      3424 7817 3436 7814

$$

BACON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
253 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
H500 RIDGING SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO HEIGHT FALLS JUST UPSTREAM IN
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEPICTED JUST
NORTH OF AREA...SOUTH OF OAJ...WINDING SOUTHWEST-WARD IN THE
VICINITY OF FLO. THIS FRONT AND THE PLACEMENT THEREOF WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS OF THIS PACKAGE.

AS WAS THE CASE THIS TIME WEDNESDAY...POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ARE THE FIRST CONCERN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINING TO OUR WEST...ALTHOUGH MAV POPS ARE HIGHER DUE
TO SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HERE
AND USED CHANCE POPS.

SOME DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENT OF FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS. WITH THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FIELDS WILL BE
CRITICAL TO POPS/QPF. BASED ON HPC AND MODEL INITIALIZATIONS...HAVE USED
THE NAM DEPICTIONS WITH MODIFICATIONS TO GUIDANCE VALUES.

MET SHOWING LIKELY TO NEAR LIKELY VALUES FOR WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY
BASED ON 925 AND 850MB JETS/CONVERGENCE. DID NOT GO THIS HIGH...ALTHOUGH DID
TREND HIGHER VALUES TO THE WEST.

USED THE SAME PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
CONCERNING POPS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...RELENTLESS HEAT SHOULD FINALLY ABATE AS
850 TEMPS DECREASE BY SOME FIVE...SIX DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE VALUES CLUSTERED FAIRLY WELL AND GENERALLY WENT WITH A
BLEND OF MAV/MET NUMBERS.

NORMALLY THIS PATTERN WOULD LEND ITSELF TO FLOODING CONCERNS.
HOWEVER...48 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY INDICATE VALUES JUST
IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES...WITH SOME OF THIS BASED ON FEEDBACK.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ALSO RUNNING SOME TWO TO THREE INCHES BELOW
NORMAL IN JULY AS WELL...MITIGATING THE THREAT SOMEWHAT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESS AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR THE EAST COAST TROUGH AS ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN POORLY DEFINED MID-LEVEL PATTERN. AT
THE SURFACE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
WHILE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BACK DOOR FRONT IS DELAYED SOMEWHAT.

USED HPC NUMBERS...WHICH ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW WITH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION JUST NOW GETTING STARTED ALTHOUGH CU FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT FLO SHOULD ALSO HAVE VCTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
ANY AREA START GETTING MORE ACTIVE AN AMENDMENT WILL BE NEEDED TO
PUT THUNDER IN A TEMPO GROUP. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF PREDAWN DIP
DOWN TO IFR VSBY ONCE AGAIN...BASICALLY A REPEAT OF THE PAST TWO
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. SEA
BREEZE AGAIN IS WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT SYNOPTIC
THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED THAT MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT OR
LESS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ087-096-097-099>101 UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039 UNTIL 7 PM
     THURSDAY.
  ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR SCZ034-046 UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...DRH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
508 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

NCZ097-099>101-SCZ033-034-039-046-290915-
PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-
GEORGETOWN-
508 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
RISE TO BETWEEN 96 AND 101. COMBINED WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE 115 DEGREES.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

NCZ087-096-SCZ017-023-024-032-290915-
ROBESON-BLADEN-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-
508 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM THIS EVENING.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. COMBINED
WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO
BETWEEN 109 AND 114 DEGREES.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

AMZ250-252-254-256-290915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM-
508 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

REK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

SCZ034-282030-
HORRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONWAY...MYRTLE BEACH
320 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN HORRY COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM IN HORRY COUNTY. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY AND
LOCATED ALONG STATE ROUTE 90 ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH.
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN DETECTED IN THIS
STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

NCZ100-282100-
BRUNSWICK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LELAND...SHALLOTTE
347 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED JUST
WEST OF LELAND EXTENDING SOUTH TO BOILING SPRINGS LAKE. TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IT WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS. THE STORM IS
NEARLY STATIONARY BUT SHOULD DRIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST.

MBB