Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Wilmington, NC

000 
WWUS52 KILM 072330
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
729 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

SCC031-072345-
/O.CAN.KILM.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-050707T2345Z/
DARLINGTON SC-
729 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DARLINGTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 727 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS 
NO LONGER SEVERE.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS 
DARLINGTON COUNTY...AND SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL 
POSSIBLE. 

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER OR WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE...REPORT IT
TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY THE
REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN WILMINGTON
NC.

LAT...LON 3436 8003 3420 7994 3431 7967 3451 7976

$$

RAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
411 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM CINDY
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. A BAND OF CONVERGENCE OR TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS AND SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY FROM THIS LOW HAS
BEEN A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE
IS STILL A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR
THIS EVENING AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.

THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

THE BIG STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS HURRICANE DENNIS. BASED ON THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST...DENNIS COULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN
GULF COAST SUNDAY. ONCE IT MOVES INLAND...THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
STILL POSSIBLE WITH AN ONSHORE/SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SOME
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND GFDL...HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE TO THE
RIGHT IN RECENT RUNS. IF DENNIS WERE TO MAKE A SHAPER EASTWARD TURN
CLOSER TO AND AFTER LANDFALL...THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT
ON OUR AREA. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST SIGNIFICANT WX ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CINDY STAYING
WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  A CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EVIDENT BY A LINE
OF ENHANCED CU EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NEAR CAE TO JUST WEST OF SAV AND
INTO SE GEORGIA. THIS CONVERGENT AREA SHOULD REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...WHICH MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH OF AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO
EDGE INTO THE KFLO VICINITY. HAVE GONE WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA
IN KFLO FROM 20-24Z...BUT KEPT CIG/VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 18Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUE. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF CINDY TO OUR W AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
HAS BEGUN TO TIGHTEN AND WIND AND SEAS HAVE BEGUN TO RESPOND. EXPECT
HIGHEST SEAS AND WIND TONIGHT INTO FRI...BUT STILL NO HIGHER THAN 20
KT AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT. KEPT SEAS IN THE THREE TO FIVE FOOT RANGE
EVEN AFTER CINDY IS WELL N OF THE AREA GIVEN SWELL FROM DENNIS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...RAS
MARINE...RJD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
410 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-
039-046-080815-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM-ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-
MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-
GEORGETOWN-
410 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM CINDY WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.