Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Wilmington, NC

000 
WWUS52 KILM 162029
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
429 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2005

SCC043-162039-
/O.EXP.KILM.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-050516T2030Z/
GEORGETOWN SC-
429 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GEORGETOWN COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 430 PM EDT...

AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS 
MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE COUNTY. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER OR WEATHER RELATED DAMAGE...REPORT IT
TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY THE
REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN WILMINGTON
NC.

LAT...LON 3350 7937 3341 7918 3352 7904 3371 7918
      3369 7923 3371 7929

$$

RAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
313 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
500 MB RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY....WHILE THE UPPER VORTEX DROPS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. NET
RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE CWA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
STRADDLE THE CWA AND PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. WILL ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. BY WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE WASHED OUT...BUT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR
THE SEA BREEZE. HIGH TEMPS TUE AND WED EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE...LARGELY DEPENDANT ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION OCCURS IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL YIELD
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 500 MB RIDGE...STILL WEST
OF THE AREA...WILL BE ELIMINATED AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
GETS PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE BROAD VORTEX OFF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE DAKOTAS LOW WILL DROP SOUTH TO LOUISIANA
BY FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO FRIDAY AND MORE SO ON
SATURDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S. WILL INCLUDED CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND FROPA ON
FRIDAY.

SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE TO
PROPEL TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS ALL MY TERMINALS...WITH
KILM/KFLO ON THE NORTHERN EDGE AND FINALLY SEEING CIGS IMPROVE TO
VFR.  HOWEVER WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE WEAK AND ENOUGH WARMING HAS
TAKEN PLACE THAT A SEA BREEZE IS ALREADY SETTING UP AND SHOULD BE
ABLE TO BRING KCRE/KMYR UP TO VFR BEFORE TOO LONG.  WILL KEEP THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW AS IT IS HARD TO SAY WHEN OR WHETHER ANY SEABREEZE
CONVECTION COULD SNEAK INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS.

MODELS HINTING AT FOG AND/OR STRATUS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND MVFR
VIS CONDITIONS DID DEVELOP THIS MORNING.  WITH THAT AND THE STALLED
BOUNDARY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD...WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF 3SM VIS AND
A SCT LOW STRATUS DECK.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY WEAK FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE
HAS RESULTED IN A MULTITUDE OF WIND DIRECTIONS ALONG THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS. PLAN TO CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY...BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. DURING WEDNESDAY THE WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT NE TO E FLOW...THEN BIG QUESTION
MARKS CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE NAM AND GFS.
THE NAM IS FASTER WITH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A BACKDOOR FRONT
WHILE THE SLOWER GFS DOES NOT PUSH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE WATERS
UNTIL FRIDAY.

WAVES ARE LIKELY 3 FT OR LESS AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL LATER
IN THE WEEK AS THE STRONGER BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH. FOLLOWED WAVEWATCH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...RAS
MARINE...PFAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
602 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2005

AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-
039-046-171015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT
20 NM-ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-
MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-
GEORGETOWN-
602 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND AM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEA BREEZE
COULD CAUSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY RESULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DCH