Severe Thunderstorm Warning 279, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1047 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. SOUTHEAST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ADVECTING MID 50 DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DUE TO A COLD POOL ALOFT...DECENT SHEAR PRESENT AND
A DRY SLOT ROTATING ACROSS OKLAHOMA TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF KANSAS. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
1) SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER PRIMARILY SE KS THIS AFTERNOON.
2) STRONG NW WINDS TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL KS TONIGHT, THEN ACROSS
SC KS MONDAY.

TODAY:
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON BEHAVIOR OF INTENSE() UPSTAIRS LOW DIGGING
SE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. PROGGED POSITIONING OF 300-MB JET MAX
PLACES SE KS BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION THIS AFTERNOON & WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED PRESENT, WL INCLUDE SEVERE
DESCRIPTOR THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA THAT DEVELOP WILL BE FAST-MOVING,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS PARENT UPSTAIRS LOW
APPROACHES, DEEP() SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE ACROSS ERN 1/3
OF KS TO ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW & INCREASE MARKEDLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. WITH EXPECTED LATE ARRIVAL OF SYSTEM, CHECKED SWING ON
ISSUING WIND ADVISORY FOR WRN CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
BE TIGHT & DIFFICULT TO PIN-POINT ACROSS SE KS (WHERE NO DOUBT
ALIGNED WITH WARM ADVECTION AXIS) & ALONG NW CORRIDOR, WHERE NO
DOUBT CLOSEST TO ONSET OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT:
WITH DEEP() SFC LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT ACROSS NE KS & THE MO/IA
BORDER, STRONG COLD ADVECTION INVADES FORECAST AREA IN NW-SE MANNER
VIA STRONG NW WINDS THATLL LIKELY REACH 25-30 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL
KS AROUND 12 MIDNIGHT. RA TO CHANGE TO -SN ACROSS WRN 1/2 OF
CENTRAL KS 9 PM, ACROSS SC KS 12 MIDNIGHT, WITH -RA/-SN MIXTURE
PICTURED FOR SE KS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS DEEP WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS NEIGHBORHOOD. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SN NO DOUBT TICKETED FOR CENTRAL KS WHERE 1-2
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. WITH GROUNDS AS WARM AS
THEYVE BEEN, ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE TEMPERED, HENCE THE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH.

MONDAY:
AS PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED SFC LOW APPROACHES UPR MS VALLEY, NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH, WITH -SN CONFINED TO NRN TIER COUNTIES IN AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUE NIGHT:
DRY WEATHER SLATED ALL AREAS AS WEAK SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS EAST
ACROSS SRN PLAINS.

WED & WED NIGHT:
NEXT CHANCE FOR RA SLATED FOR WED AFTERNOON AS NEXT COLD FRONT
SURGES E/SE ACROSS KS. TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR COLD FRONT TO WORK WITH, HENCE THE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH ON POPS FOR TIME BEING.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  34  40  23 /  50  60  20   0
HUTCHINSON      54  32  39  22 /  60  60  30   0
NEWTON          58  33  39  22 /  50  60  30   0
ELDORADO        60  34  40  23 /  50  50  30   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  35  42  24 /  50  50  20   0
RUSSELL         50  29  36  20 /  60  70  40   0
GREAT BEND      49  30  38  21 /  60  70  30   0
SALINA          56  32  36  20 /  60  70  40   0
MCPHERSON       56  32  37  21 /  60  60  30   0
COFFEYVILLE     66  37  42  25 /  50  40  20   0
CHANUTE         64  36  40  24 /  50  40  20   0
IOLA            64  35  40  24 /  50  40  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068-082-083.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1058 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-281200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1058 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOR TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SHEAR IS PRESENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...THAT A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE AREA OF
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE EAST OF A MARION TO
SEDAN LINE.

FOR TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH THAT...
WHEN COMBINED WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WILL PRODUCE POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...IN
EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY...FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF A MARION TO
SEDAN LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES/CH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
105 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

KSZ033-048>049-051>053-068>072-083-093>096-098>100
-280200-
ALLEN KS-BUTLER KS-CHASE KS-CHAUTAUQUA KS-COWLEY KS-
ELK KS-ELLSWORTH KS-GREENWOOD KS-HARVEY KS-LABETTE KS-
LINCOLN KS-MCPHERSON KS-MARION KS-MONTGOMERY KS-
NEOSHO KS-SALINE KS-SEDGWICK KS-WILSON KS-WOODSON KS-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 875 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 19 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL KANSAS

CHASE                 ELLSWORTH             LINCOLN
MARION                MCPHERSON             SALINE

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS

BUTLER                COWLEY                HARVEY
SEDGWICK

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS

ALLEN                 CHAUTAUQUA            ELK
GREENWOOD             LABETTE               MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO                WILSON                WOODSON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ARKANSAS CITY...AUGUSTA...CHANUTE...
COFFEYVILLE...COTTONWOOD FALLS...EL DORADO...ELLSWORTH...EUREKA...
FREDONIA...HILLSBORO...HOWARD...INDEPENDENCE...IOLA...LINCOLN...
MARION...MCPHERSON...NEWTON...PARSONS...SALINA...SEDAN...
WICHITA...WINFIELD AND YATES CENTER.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
112 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

KSZ093-094-098-271945-
CHAUTAUQUA-COWLEY-ELK-
112 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHAUTAUQUA...COWLEY AND ELK COUNTIES...

AT 107 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GRENOLA TO 12 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SHIDLER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL STONES UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...MOST
STONES WILL BE NEAR ONE QUARTER INCH OR PEA SIZED.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

CHANCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
140 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 PM     HAIL             N PEABODY               38.17N 97.10W
11/27/2005  1.00 INCH        MARION             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
150 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 PM     TORNADO          4 SW LINCOLNVILLE       38.45N 97.01W
11/27/2005                   MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND.

&&

CWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
157 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     TORNADO          E MARION                38.35N 97.02W
11/27/2005                   MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND EAST OF MARION. NO DAMAGE
            HAS BEEN REPORTED.

&&

CWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
210 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     TORNADO          2 NE LINCOLNVILLE       38.51N 96.93W
11/27/2005                   MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. NO DAMAGE REPORTED

&&

CWH