Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP AND TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE FORECAST AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP.

TONIGHT-SAT:
VERY COMPLEX FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS SETTING UP. HAD A HARD TIME
BUYING INTO ANY OF THE MODELS AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THEM DID
NOT ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP THAT OCCURRED BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THIS
MORNING. VIA PROFILERS AND WATER VAPOR, IT APPEARS THE STORMS IN
QUESTION DEVELOPED ALONG AN 850MB BOUNDARY AS A WEAK CONNECTIVITY
INFLUENCED WAVE TRACK FROM NW TX INTO CENTRAL KS. THE MAIN PROBLEM
IS THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SET UP A TEMP CONTRAST ACROSS
CENTRAL KS THAT MAY ACT FOR A FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SINCE STORMS FIRED LAST NIGHT ON LESS CONVERGENCE, SEE NO
REASON WHY STORMS WOULD NOT DEVELOP OR KEEP DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
KS. REGARDLESS HOW THINGS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET APPROACHES CENTRAL KS, SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WITH PLENTY OF 850MB MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AROUND 30-35KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR,
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET AND FRONT LINGERING AROUND
AREA, KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN FOR SAT WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
GENERALLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. WITH ABUNDANT 850MB MOISTURE STILL
IN PLACE SAT, ANY SMALL UPPER WAVE WOULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS SAT.

SAT NIGHT-MON:
ONE OF THE THINGS I NOTICED FROM DOING THE FORECAST A COUPLE DAYS
AGO IS THAT IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL NOT SLAM THROUGH AS EXPECTED
AND PRETTY MUCH HANGS UP SAT AND SUN ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
BORDER. WITH THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT AND SUN
WHICH MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE AND
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY MAY STILL REMAIN SW OF FORECAST AREA OVER NW
OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THIS IS
WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SITUATED, ESPECIALLY AT
850MB. NEVERTHELESS WITH FRONT MEANDERING AROUND AREA AND EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW, WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
BY MON, THE HIGH SHOULD START TO WORK FAR ENOUGH SE TO PUSH SOME
DRIER AIR IN HERE. HOWEVER, THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD STILL BE UNDER
MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME STORMS TO
PERSIST.

AS IF TRYING TO PIN DOWN PRECIP CHANCES WAS NOT HARD ENOUGH, TEMPS
ARE ALSO GOING TO BE TRICKY. THE GUIDANCE IS GOING 90S FOR SAT AND
SUN. EVEN THOUGH 850MB TEMPS MAYBE WARM ENOUGH, WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AROUND, HAVE A HARD TIME BUYING IT. THEREFORE WILL GO AROUND
5-7 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SAT AND SUN WHICH PLACES
MOST OF FORECAST AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TUE-FRI:
DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THESE EXTENDED PERIODS. BOTH
GFS AND ECM ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER TROUGH TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUE-WED. BOTH MED RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER, THE GFS AND UK HOLD MORE ENERGY OVER CA THEN THE ECM. BUT
BOTH THE GFS AND UK CUT THIS FEATURE OFF OVER THE WESTERN STATES SO
IT SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MUCH PLAY IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRI. LEFT
FORECAST DRY FOR TUE AND WED WITH THE THINKING THAT THE BETTER UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR PRECIP MAYBE TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET/ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF AREA, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE TUE NIGHT PERIOD. PREV FORECAST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS FOR THU AND FRI, AND AT THIS JUNCTURE SEE NO GOOD REASON TO
YANK. THE GFS BRINGS THE MEAN UPPER FLOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECM
WHICH RESULTS IN SOME DECENT UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND FRONT BISECTING
FORECAST AREA. THE ECM HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH, BUT WITH
STRONG UPPER WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ROCKIES, HAVE A FEELING IT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DIG PRETTY FAR
SOUTH. SO THE ECM MAY JUST BE BEHIND THE GFS BY ABOUT 12 HOURS WITH
THE FRONT. FURTHER MODEL RUNS SHOULD TELL, SO FOR NOW WILL JUST
LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN FOR THU-FRI.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
FOR TUE-WED. THU AND FRI WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FRONT AROUND AREA. SO FOR NOW WENT CONSERVATIVE OVER CENTRAL KS BUT
DID BUMP TEMPS UP A BIT FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  91  68  87 /  40  40  40  20
HUTCHINSON      72  89  66  87 /  40  40  30  20
NEWTON          74  89  66  87 /  40  40  40  20
ELDORADO        75  91  67  87 /  40  40  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  93  69  88 /  20  40  50  20
RUSSELL         66  86  64  86 /  60  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      69  87  65  86 /  60  30  30  20
SALINA          68  86  64  86 /  60  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       71  87  65  86 /  60  30  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     76  91  69  88 /  20  40  50  20
CHANUTE         75  88  68  85 /  30  40  30  20
IOLA            75  88  67  85 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

LAWSON/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
130 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-201200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
130 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL TOP 105 DEGREES GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OVERNIGHT, AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.  THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING,  WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WITH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
DURING THE PAST WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BY NEXT THURSDAY,
THOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE TYPE OR MAGNITUDE OF ANY
SEVERE RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM EUREKA TO KINGMAN, BUT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KLEINSASSER/HOWERTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

KSZ032>033-047>053-067>068-200300-
BARTON KS-CHASE KS-ELLSWORTH KS-HARVEY KS-LINCOLN KS-
MCPHERSON KS-MARION KS-RENO KS-RICE KS-RUSSELL KS-
SALINE KS-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 736
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN CENTRAL KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES

BARTON                CHASE                 ELLSWORTH
LINCOLN               MARION                MCPHERSON
RICE                  RUSSELL               SALINE

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

HARVEY                RENO

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GREAT BEND...HUTCHINSON...MCPHERSON...RUSSELL
AND SALINA.

LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
334 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

KSZ049-192115-
SALINE-
334 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SALINE COUNTY...

AT 329 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
NEAR LINDSBORG...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SEDLOCK

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