Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
500 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

.MESO UPDATE...

LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL FINALLY DISSIPATED NEAR MCPHERSON. THIS APPEARS
MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE TO
NON-EXISTENT EAST OF I-135, WHICH LIKELY RESULTED IN DECREASED
INGESTION OF LOW-LEVEL HELICITY INTO THE STORM.

SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, WHICH HAVE ENHANCED
THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITIES AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM WEST OF HUTCHINSON ALONG AND JUST TO
THE NORTH OF A SOUTHWARD SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH STORMS
MOVING INTO RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS,
ALONG WITH INCREASED BACKED FLOW/HELICITIES AND LOWER CLOUD BASES
ALONG BOUNDARY, TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
VERY LARGE HAIL, DUE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY, AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THREATS AS WELL. LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
BACK EVEN MORE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, ALONG WITH CLOUDS BASES
LOWERING SLIGHTLY DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE
TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING.

KLEINSASSER/CARUSO

---------------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
234 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...

CURRENT SUPERCELL STORM IN BARTON COUNTY KANSAS JUST THE BEGINNING
OF WHAT WILL BE A LONG EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY TO
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BACKED NEAR SURFACE
FLOW ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TORNADO THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
THOUGH MODE SHOULD TRANSITION TO BOW ECHO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER
ON. BESIDES VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL
INCREASE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LARGER SCALE MESOSCALE SYSTEM(S) INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE COME UP
A BIT, PARTS OF THE AREA STILL RECOVERING FROM JUNE DELUGES, SO
FIGURED IT WISE TO GO WITH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE, GENERALLY ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO FORECAST NEEDED INTO
THE OUTER PERIODS. CHANCES, ALBEIT MODEST AND HARD TO PIN DOWN
AT THIS POINT, WILL CONTINUE IN WEAK-MODEST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DARMOFAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  87  66  89 /  70  30  20  20
HUTCHINSON      67  87  64  89 /  80  20  20  20
NEWTON          67  86  65  88 /  80  20  20  20
ELDORADO        68  86  66  88 /  70  30  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  89  68  91 /  70  40  20  20
RUSSELL         63  86  62  88 /  70  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  86  63  88 /  80  20  20  20
SALINA          66  87  64  90 /  80  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       67  87  64  89 /  80  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  87  68  89 /  60  40  20  20
CHANUTE         68  86  66  88 /  70  30  10  10
IOLA            68  85  66  87 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ALLEN...BARTON...BUTLER...CHASE...
CHAUTAUQUA...COWLEY...ELK...ELLSWORTH...GREENWOOD...HARPER...
HARVEY...KINGMAN...LABETTE...LINCOLN...MARION...MCPHERSON...
MONTGOMERY...NEOSHO...RENO...RICE...RUSSELL...SALINE...
SEDGWICK...SUMNER...WILSON...AND WOODSON.

&&

DARMOFAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-041200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
314 PM PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO 80 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING.

INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS OR STORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
OR DEVELOP INTO MORE OF A LINEAR STORM STRUCTURE LATER IN THE
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. BESIDES A WIND AND HAIL THREAT, THE RISK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN RISK WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE FOR MORE COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE
PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW, IT IS TOO EARLY TO DEPICT THE DEGREE
OF SEVERITY AND  TIMING OF THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY
LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1045 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW ANTHONY            37.17N 98.05W
07/03/2005                   HARPER             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER RESCUE FOR A FAMILY TRAPPED IN A CAR IN HIGH WATER
            NEAR ANTHONY LAKE.

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1049 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E ANTHONY             37.15N 97.94W
07/03/2005                   HARPER             KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            HIGH WATER OVER HIGHWAY 44 EAST OF ANTHONY. HIGHWAY WAS
            CLOSED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1117 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W ATTICA              37.24N 98.26W
07/03/2005  78 MPH           HARPER             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1120 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1119 PM     TSTM WND GST     ATTICA                  37.24N 98.23W
07/03/2005  81 MPH           HARPER             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CDB

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