Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
826 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

.UPDATE...

SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS, ROOTED ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR HAS SUSTAINED THIS SUPERCELL FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW. SEVERAL
FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS, ALONG WITH AN UNCONFIRMED TOUCHDOWN IN
CHANUTE. NUMEROUS GOLFBALL HAIL, AND EVEN A BASEBALL HAIL REPORT.
THIS STORM MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS, AS LONG AS IT REMAINS
ROOTED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
START TO WANE BY 9 PM, AS DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES AND LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION STRENGTHENS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST, SOUTH OF EL
DORADO, WICHITA AND KINGMAN. ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY TRIED TO GET
GOING ALONG THIS FEATURE WEST OF WICHITA, BUT COULDNT HOLD
TOGETHER, LIKELY DUE TO WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STRONGER CAP.
THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

ADDITIONAL ELEVATED ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PERCULATE ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG 800-700MB FRONT.
THETA-E CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION IS QUITE STRONG, WHICH WILL LIKELY
HELP SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER TONIGHT.
INCREASING NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET, ALONG WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF JET STREAK WILL AID IN THE LIFT. HEAVY RAIN WILL DEFINITELY BE A
POSSIBILITY, AS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS TO THE SOUTH AND
BACKBUILD TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER. HOWEVER, STRONG 800-700MB FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED THETA-E CONVERGENCE WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS LATER TONIGHT, WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO FIRE SOME ACTIVITY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL SOON BE IN AFFECT UNTIL 4 AM FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005/

...MESO UPDATE...

AS OF 22Z...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN RENO COUNTY
ACROSS HARVEY COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHERN CHASE COUNTY AND WAS SAGGING
SOUTHWARD AROUND 10-15 KT. LATEST METAR AND RUC DATA SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. TWO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS
A RESULT. SBCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 3000 WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40
KT NEAR THIS FRONT. WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE
NEAR THIS FRONT FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS, WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH LCL HEIGHTS GENERALLY
ABOVE 1000 METERS. HOWEVER A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE
RIGHT STORM-BOUNDARY INTERACTION SETS UP GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY
PRESENT AND DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

OTHER SEVERE STORMS COULD FIRE OVER SOUTHEAST KS, JUST SOUTH OF
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM EAST-CENTRAL KS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER IN SOUTHEAST KS, WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

JMC

---------------------------------------------------------------
326 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SPC RECENTLY ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9PM FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COUNTIES ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATCH MAY NOT BE AFFECTED
UNTIL THE END OF THE WATCH VALID TIME. A FEW KEY BOUNDARIES TO DEAL
WITH THIS AFTERNOON. ONE IS A QUASI-STATIONARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LIBERAL TO PRATT TO MCPHERSON, AND INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BISECTS THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS ELLSWORTH/MCPHERSON COUNTY, AND EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEAST TO
NEAR CHANUTE. CONTINUED STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAKENING
CAP, EVIDENT IN DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELDS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED,
BEING FED FROM STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY.
THINKING IS THAT SFC BASED STORMS WILL FIRE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS BEING MAXIMIZED. DO NOT THINK CONVERGENCE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO FIRE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AREA
PROFILERS INDICATING AROUND 30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL YIELD
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE TORNADOES, SO
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THINKING
THAT STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING THROUGH THE NIGHT
GENERALLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE, WHERE COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
BACKBUILD TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

AFTER A FEW MORNING STORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES, FRIDAY SHOULD BE
DRY AND COOLER. RETURNING MOISTURE ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAY SPARK SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD ALSO SEE HIGH PLAINS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PONDERED FOG POTENTIAL
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS, BUT DO NOT THINK
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BELOW 3 MILES, HENCE MORE OF AN AVIATION
CONCERN. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM, BREEZY AND DRY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT, AS
AFTERNOON HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY COULD PUSH INTO MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BEING AIDED BY AN INTENSIFYING
LOW-LEVEL JET.

SUNDAY COULD APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN, AS COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME CONSISTENCY IN SAGGING THIS FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT, AND LINGER IT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF HAS ONLY RECENTLY COME AROUND TO THE
GFS SOLUTION, SO WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMES FOR
CONVECTION YET. MAY BE ANOTHER COOL DOWN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IF
GFS VERIFIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  89  65  92 /  60  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      66  88  65  93 /  60  10  30  10
NEWTON          66  88  64  92 /  60  10  20  10
ELDORADO        67  88  64  91 /  60  10  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  90  65  93 /  60  20  20  10
RUSSELL         63  87  65  94 /  20  10  30  10
GREAT BEND      64  88  65  94 /  40  10  30  10
SALINA          64  87  64  92 /  30  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       65  88  65  92 /  50  10  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  89  64  91 /  60  20  20  10
CHANUTE         67  87  64  90 /  60  20  20  10
IOLA            67  86  64  89 /  60  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KLEINSASSER/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
907 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-011200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
907 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WESTWARD BY MIDNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL LIKELY BECOME THE GREATEST THREAT, AS SLOW
MOVING STORMS COULD MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS
THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BOTH NIGHTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, SPREADING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, SO ANYONE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR LATER OUTLOOKS AND
FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS ARE ALWAYS
GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

HOWERTON/JMC/ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
844 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 N PARSONS             37.38N 95.27W
06/30/2005                   LABETTE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
846 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     TORNADO          4 NE PARSONS            37.38N 95.22W
06/30/2005                   LABETTE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1/2 MILE WIDE

&&

RHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
848 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     TORNADO          4 NE PARSONS            37.38N 95.22W
06/30/2005                   LABETTE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 TORNADOES ON THE GROUND

0848 PM     TORNADO          4 NE PARSONS            37.38N 95.22W
06/30/2005                   LABETTE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 TORNADOES ON THE GROUND

&&

RHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
856 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TORNADO          8 E PARSONS             37.34N 95.12W
06/30/2005                   LABETTE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LFW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
904 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     HAIL             10 N YATES CENTER       38.02N 95.74W
06/30/2005  0.50 INCH        WOODSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
915 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     HAIL             8 N YATES CENTER        37.99N 95.74W
06/30/2005  0.50 INCH        WOODSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RHE