Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...

CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM WEST OF CONCORDIA,
SOUTHWEST THROUGH HAYS THEN JUST NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY. DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, EVIDENT IN INCREASING CUMULUS/TOWERING
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT, AS
CONVERGENCE CONTINUES, COUPLED WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING ALONG
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS AROUND 20-30KTS, SO SEVERE STORMS AND MARGINALLY WEAK
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND (DUE TO HIGH
LCLS) AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT, BUT UPPER FORCING
WILL SHEAR WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. CONSEQUENTLY, NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET,
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL, AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT. THINKING SEVERE CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SOME AFTER DARK, BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS BACKBUILD TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

MORNING AND THEN LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. SEVERE CHANCES LOOK
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY, JUST FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER ALLUDED TO, HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO AN
MCS OR TWO AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY
GRADIENT/STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS OR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THE
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER, DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES
IN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO ACCOUNT FOR WASHED OUT FRONTAL REMAIN. HOWEVER, ELEVATED STORMS
COULD MAKE A RETURN BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AS LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES. MAY SEE MORE ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT, OWING TO AFTERNOON
HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY VENTURING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER DARK.

COULD VERY WELL BE INTRODUCING POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT PROGRESSING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HELD OFF TO GET A BIT
MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES INTO MID NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKING LIKE
WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BY MID WEEK, AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST ECMWF RUN
AND GFS ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  90  67  88 /  30  30  30  20
HUTCHINSON      72  88  66  88 /  30  20  20  10
NEWTON          73  89  66  87 /  30  20  20  10
ELDORADO        73  89  67  87 /  30  30  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  94  68  88 /  20  30  30  20
RUSSELL         68  87  63  87 /  30  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  87  64  87 /  30  20  20  10
SALINA          70  87  65  87 /  30  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       72  88  65  87 /  30  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  95  68  88 /  20  30  30  20
CHANUTE         74  90  66  87 /  30  30  30  20
IOLA            74  89  66  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KLEINSASSER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
410 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-301200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
410 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS, LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH AND MOVE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT, OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SEVERE THREAT LATER TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WILL BE MORE CONDITIONAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE, AS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY, BEFORE MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54. DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL ARE BOTH POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN
AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT.
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR LATER
OUTLOOKS AND FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE MIDNIGHT,
GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HUTCHINSON TO COTTONWOOD FALLS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT, SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED SOUTH OF THIS LINE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

HOWERTON/KLEINSASSER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
559 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

KSZ033-292345-
LINCOLN-
559 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 556 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SYLVAN GROVE...OR 16 MILES WEST OF
LINCOLN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

KETCHAM